NBA Week 1 Top WPA Performers: Gordon, Gilgeous-Alexander, Sengun, and more
For every game, the numbers tell one story — but the swings tell another. Some nights, a single player’s actions can carry a team through chaos. From clutch shots to…
NFL Week 7 win probability swings: Broncos’ miracle comeback, Rodgers-Flacco duel, and Packers’ late surge
In sports, what makes a lead safe? Obviously, it depends on the margin and time remaining, but there's another factor, one that goes beyond what we see, one that gets…
NFL Week 6: When win probability didn’t mean predictability
If Week 6 taught us anything, it’s that probability doesn’t equal predictability. Three different games — Chargers-Dolphins, Cowboys-Panthers, and Bears-Commanders — each followed the same rhythm: control, collapse, and chaos.…
Boone and the Yankees’ real problem runs deeper than analytics
When New York Yankees manager Aaron Boone stepped out of the dugout to take the ball from starting pitcher Max Fried in Game 1 of the American League Wild Card…
NFL Week 5: chaos, comebacks, and costly mistakes define win probability madness
NFL Week 5 had eight games come within one possession and six with 20 or more fourth quarter points. From beginning to end, we saw it all; critical turnovers, outright…
NFL Week 4 chaos: Win probability flips, late drama, and shocking finishes
NFL Week 4 was unbelievable. Late chaos. Lead changes. Fanbases getting their hopes up in the second half just to get disappointed in the end. Win probabilities flipping in seconds.…
NFL Week 3 win probability swings: Packers collapse, Rams heartbreak, Chargers rally, 49ers survive
NFL Week 3 reminded me of the blurred lines between good fortune, preparedness, and the importance of executing late in games. There was chaos. Momentum swung. Win probabilities did, too. …
Clayton Kershaw’s mastery of command: Why first-pitch strikes defined his greatness
When I was growing up, Clayton Kershaw was the best starter in baseball, pretty much without question. He seemed to be the hope for a Los Angeles Dodgers franchise hungry…
NFL Week 2 win probability swings: Mayfield magic, Cowboys-Giants thriller, and more
NFL Week 2 was a masterclass in chaos. Across the league, teams swung between despair and triumph in the span of a few snaps. Win probabilities spiked and collapsed like…
NFL Week 1 win probability swings: Key moments that changed the games
In sports, in football, we often talk about how much momentum matters. For years, momentum has largely been seen as an immeasurable factor, but win probability is now a way…