For every game, the numbers tell one story — but the swings tell another. Some nights, a single player’s actions can carry a team through chaos. From clutch shots to momentum-flipping runs, these performances defined the outcomes in ways that only advanced analytics like win probability capture. To capture these narratives, I will be highlighting the top performances in terms of win probability added (WPA) each week of the NBA season.

Here are the top WPA performers — the players who bent the odds in their team’s favor.

Aaron Gordon (Nuggets) — +1.0 WPA, momentum maker turned heartbreak (Oct. 23)

For most of the night, this was the Aaron Gordon Show. According to his WPA, he literally increased the Denver Nuggets chances to win by 100 percent. He had 38 points and looked to be on his way to a career night toward the end of the third quarter. So it makes sense that when he left the game to freshen up for the fourth, the Denver Nuggets lost momentum. In fact, before he was subbed, the Nuggets led 85-84 and had a 59 percent chance of winning, according to ESPN Analytics, but the Warriors went on a quick 5-0 run in his absence — and the energy flipped completely. The run vaulted the Warriors’ win probability to 69 percent. 

A few minutes into that final frame, as the Nuggets fought back, the game became more of a coin flip. And then with 9:37 left, Gordon arose from the bench. The game turned immediately as he singlehandedly went on a 10-0 run to put the Nuggets up 109-100. During Gordon’s two-and-a-half minute takeover, the Nuggets’ win probability went from 48 percent to 92 percent. But the Warriors stormed back to grasp the momentum, and despite Gordon hitting a three-pointer to give the Nuggets the 120-117 lead with 26 seconds left, the Warriors went on to give Denver its first loss of the year.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder) — +0.85 WPA, took control in double overtime (Oct. 21)

After Kevin Durant put the Houston Rockets up by two with under 10 seconds left, ESPN Analytics said they had a 72 percent chance to beat the Oklahoma City Thunder. They needed a stop and a rebound to close it out. Problem was, the reigning MVP was getting the ball back. And sure enough, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander immediately went down and pulled up from mid-range to tie the game — capping off a 10-point fourth quarter.

In the first overtime, Gilgeous-Alexander scored or assisted on three of the Thunder’s four baskets. And then In the second, he lived at the line — missing some, but hitting the ones that mattered most. When Durant fouled him down one, Shai’s free throws flipped the game for good. His tenacity increased the Thunder’s chances to win by 85 percent.

Alperen Sengun (Rockets) — +0.84 WPA, clutch through two overtimes (Oct. 21)

Seconds before Alperen Sengun hit a six-footer to put the Rockets up 103-102 late in the fourth, the Thunder had a 60 percent chance of winning, according to ESPN Analytics. That shot immediately flipped the script and gave the Rockets a 54 percent win probability. And then in the first overtime, he tied the game at 115 off an offensive rebound from his own missed floater with nine seconds left. In the second, he put the Rockets ahead multiple times, including with 11 seconds left. That clutch outing increased Houston’s chances to win by 84 percent.

Stephen Curry (Warriors) — +0.68 WPA, closed it out with vintage poise (Oct. 23)

With 2:42 left, the Nuggets led 116-109 with a 94 percent chance of winning, according to ESPN Analytics, but then Stephen Curry drew two straight fouls — one being on a three-pointer. And as expected, he went 5-for-5 from the line to cut the deficit to two. Next time down, after Nikola Jokic hit one of two free throws, Curry hit a three to tie it at 117. A few plays later, Gordon hit a three, but Curry matched it. 120 all. Then in the first minute of overtime, he hit another three to put the Warriors back in front and ultimately set the table for the win. Curry’s late-game plays increased the Warriors’ chance of winning by 68 percent during the clutch moments.

Austin Reaves (Lakers) — +0.67 WPA, changed the game in 90 seconds (Oct. 26)

Austin Reeves increased the Los Angeles Lakers’ chances to win by 67 percent Sunday night against the Sacramento Kings. When he entered the game with 9:11 left, the Lakers trailed 101-97 and had a win probability under 18 percent, per ESPN Analytics. 12 seconds later, he hits a three-pointer, his fourth of the night. 30 seconds after that, he hits another three to put the Lakers up by two. Suddenly, their win probability was 53 percent. Moments later, he hits yet another three, giving the Lakers a 108-101 lead and an 82 percent win probability. And down the stretch, he hit four free throws to seal the win.