For every game, the numbers tell one story — but the swings tell another. Some nights, a single player’s actions can carry a team through chaos. From clutch shots to momentum-flipping runs, these performances defined the outcomes in ways that only advanced analytics like win probability capture.
To capture these narratives, I highlight the top performances in terms of win probability added (WPA) each week of the NBA season. WPA calculates how much a given player contributed to their team’s chances to win a game on a scale — for example, a player with a +0.35 WPA increased their team’s win probability by 35 percentage points, while a player with a –0.20 WPA made plays that lowered it by 20 points.
Here are this past week’s top WPA performers — the players who bent the odds in their team’s favor.
Stephen Curry (Warriors) — +0.67 WPA, Bending the odds against Portland (Dec. 14 vs. Trail Blazers)
Sunday’s game against the Portland Trail Blazers was the one of those Stephen Curry-esque classics. He had 48 points, he hit 12 threes, and yet the Golden State Warriors still managed to lose. In the first three minutes of the fourth quarter, Curry caught fire and decided to try to singlehandedly will the Warriors to the win. First, he received a pass from longtime teammate and fellow championship cornerstone Draymond Green and gave the Warriors a five-point lead. And then moments later, after Portland answered and made it a one-possession game, he went off again, hitting free throws, hitting threes, and going on a 11-2 run on his own. That burst accelerated Golden State’s win probability to 92 percent — more than double the 43 percent chance it had late in the fourth quarter –– per ESPN Analytics. And then after the Trail Blazers fought back with a 27-17 run of their own, Curry had a response, another three.
Amen Thompson (Rockets) — +0.57 WPA, A second-chance moment changes the game (Dec. 11 vs. Clippers)
With 21 seconds left on Thursday night against the Los Angeles Clippers, Houston Rockets guard Reed Sheppard missed a three-pointer and Alperen Sengun tried to tip the ball back in. But it rimmed out, he gathered the offensive rebound, so he tried again. And it fell off the rim again, but like the time before, he got the rebound. Once more, he put a tip up, just for the ball to rim out. This time, though, his teammate Amen Thompson got the rebound and tipped it in and drew a foul. Thompson completed the three-point play to put the Rockets up 112-110 with 17 seconds remaining. That was the play of the game, the play that returned momentum to the Rockets sideline, where it resided not only most of the fourth quarter but most of the game. It was perhaps a fitting end, considering Thompson had a productive night, with 22 points, nine rebounds and eight assists.
Keyonte George (Jazz) — +0.52 WPA, Turning a turnover into a closing statement (Dec. 12 vs. Grizzlies)
The clock was approaching a minute remaining when Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies missed a chance to take the lead. Morant, with the game tied at 126, turned it over out of bounds, and that swung the door wide open for the Utah Jazz. We’ve all heard the saying: missed opportunities for one team become prime chances to seize momentum for their opponent. And that was definitely the case here — because that’s when the Keyonte George Show started. As the clock leaked under a minute, George, who had already been in attack mode with eight points and two assists in the fourth quarter alone, pulled up from mid-range to give the Jazz a two-point lead. That gave the Jazz momentum again; according to ESPN Analytics, their win probability was at 60 percent most of the fourth quarter but dropped below 50 percent just before Morant’s turnover. But after that mid-range jumper, their win probability jumped to 92 percent. And from there, they never looked back.