For every game, the numbers tell one story — but the swings tell another. Some nights, a single player’s actions can carry a team through chaos. From clutch shots to momentum-flipping runs, these performances defined the outcomes in ways that only advanced analytics like win probability capture.
To capture these narratives, I highlight the top performances in terms of win probability added (WPA) each week of the NBA season. WPA calculates how much a given player contributed to their team’s chances to win a game on a scale — for example, a player with a +0.35 WPA increased their team’s win probability by 35 percentage points, while a –0.20 WPA reflects plays that lowered it by 20 points.
Here are the top WPA performers — the players who bent the odds in their team’s favor.
Kawhi Leonard (Clippers) — +0.78 WPA, Kawhi’s late takeover saves the Clippers (Oct. 31)
With 5:55 left, the Los Angeles Clippers and New Orleans Pelicans were all tied up at 107. The Pelicans had just erased a 17-point deficit and nearly absorbed all the momentum the Clippers had throughout the second half — late in the third, the Clippers had a 98 percent chance of winning, according to ESPN Analytics, but New Orleans’ 34-17 extended run cut that probability to 52 percent.
And then Kawhi Leonard happened. With 4:13 left, he hits a three-pointer to extend the Clipper lead to six and reclaim some of the momentum, forcing the Pelicans to call a timeout. Moments later, after the Pelicans had cut the lead to 113-111, Leonard went on a personal run. Over the next 2:09, he outscored the Pelicans team 9-4 to put the Clippers up 122-115. But his most important shot came with 0.4 seconds left — as he pulled up from mid-range and hit the game-winner.
Lauri Markkanen (Jazz) — +0.56 WPA, Markkanen’s 51-point masterpiece and perfect night at the line (Oct. 27)
Lauri Markkanen scored 51 points on Monday, and it turns out he needed every last one to guide the Utah Jazz to their 138-134 win over the Phoenix Suns. Seven of his points came in overtime — after his team let a seven-point lead slip away in the final 19 seconds of regulation — and two of those were game-clinching free throws with 1.9 seconds left. But the story of this performance is how Markkanen made a living at the line, hitting all 17 of his free throws. For those counting, that’s a third of his total points for the night.
Quenton Jackson (Pacers) — +0.56 WPA, Jackson’s unlikely surge fuels the Pacers’ comeback (Nov. 1)
Indiana Pacers guard Quenton Jackson entered Saturday’s game with 7:44 left, with his team trailing the Golden State Warriors 99-89 and just a 7.6 chance of making the comeback, according to ESPN Analytics. But then he drove to the rim for a layup to cut the deficit to single-digits to get the Pacers the smallest bit closer — though their win probability was still under 10 percent. Moments later, he scored five straight points to get the Pacers within two and find a glimpse of hope, a 32 percent win probability. And then he did it; with 1:09 left, he hit a three to give the Pacers a 109-107 lead. And a minute later, after the Pacers and Warriors exchanged baskets, he hit another shot to stretch the lead to five and seal the win.
Austin Reaves (Lakers) — +0.53 WPA, Reaves beats the buzzer to rescue the Lakers (Oct. 29)
Last week, Austin Reeves increased the Los Angeles Lakers’ chances of winning because he scored 50 points, but this week — Wednesday against the Minnesota Timberwolves — he changed the outcome because he was clutch. With 4:01 left, he hit a three to halt the Timberwolves’ 12-4 run that cut the Laker lead from 16 to eight. That shot stopped the bleeding for the Lakers momentarily, but the avalanche from the Timberwolves continued. They completed the comeback, took the lead, and had a 69 percent win probability with 10 seconds left, according to ESPN Analytics, but then Reeves saved the day for the Lakers. With 1.1 seconds on the clock, he hit a floater to salvage the win.
Jerami Grant (Trail Blazers) — +0.48 WPA, Grant’s clutch free throws flip the finish (Oct. 31)
Jerami Grant changed the game in an instant, completely flipping the script for the Portland Trail Blazers Friday night against the Denver Nuggets. The Trail Blazers trailed 107-102 with a minute left, the Nuggets had a 88 percent chance of winning, according to ESPN Analytics, and the game seemed over. But then with 30 seconds left, Grant took over. Christian Braun fouled him and he made two free throws to tie the game at 107. That evened the game win probability-wise; after the free throws, the Nuggets’ win probability was down to 55 percent. On the following possession, the Trail Blazers blocked two shots, forcing a shot clock violation. That’s when it happened; the Nuggets fouled Grant again, with 1.4 seconds left this time, and he hit both free throws to polish off the 109-107 win.