For every game, the numbers tell one story — but the swings tell another. Some nights, a single player’s actions can carry a team through chaos. From clutch shots to momentum-flipping runs, these performances defined the outcomes in ways that only advanced analytics like win probability capture.
To capture these narratives, I highlight the top performances in terms of win probability added (WPA) each week of the NBA season. WPA calculates how much a given player contributed to their team’s chances to win a game on a scale — for example, a player with a +0.35 WPA increased their team’s win probability by 35 percentage points, while a player with a –0.20 WPA made plays that lowered it by 20 points.
Here are this past week’s top WPA performers — the players who bent the odds in their team’s favor.
Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) — +0.72 WPA, Edwards’ late-game surge forces overtime (Dec. 2 vs. Pelicans)
Minnesota Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards’ 34-point second half on Tuesday is one of the biggest halves we’ll see from an individual perspective, but what impressed me most was his answer for almost every New Orleans Pelicans bucket. With 2:11 left, for example, the Timberwolves trailed 124-122 and had a 26 percent win probability, according to ESPN Analytics, but then after a Pelicans free throw, Edwards tied it with a three. That gave Minnesota a 43 percent win probability, which may not sound like much, but for a team with the best player on the floor on the heater Edwards was on, that’s an incubator for momentum. And then moments later, with the clock winding down under five seconds after the Pelicans regained the lead and had a 80 percent win probability once again, Edwards drove to the rim, hit a layup, and forced overtime.
Desmond Bane (Magic) — +0.62 WPA, Bane’s fourth-quarter takeover flips the game (Dec. 1 vs. Bulls)
Midway through the fourth quarter, the Orlando Magic were in danger of dropping a home game to the Chicago Bulls — they trailed 107-102 and had a slim 21 percent win probability. The Bulls had stolen the fourth quarter until that point, going on a short run to literally flip the momentum; with 11:40 left, the Magic were the ones with the 70 percent win probability. But that’s when Magic veteran Desmond Bane took over. Moments after scoring eight straight points to weather the Bulls’ storm early in the quarter, he went on another run — and this time he changed the game. Put simply, after the 5:07 mark, when the Bulls led by five and had a 77 percent win probability, he scored or assisted on almost every Orlando basket. First, he laid one in to make it an one-possession game, then he set up an Anthony Black three to cut the deficit to a point, and then he hit a go-ahead three. And while he had another three points and two assists after, that three proved to be the shot of the game; it gave Orlando the lead, a 54 percent win probability, and the Magic never looked back from there.
VJ Edgecombe (76ers) — +0.61 WPA, Rookie redeems turnover with game-winning tip-in (Dec. 4 vs. Warriors)
How many times does a player get a second chance after blowing an opportunity to win a game for his team? It’s rare, and it’s even more rare for that second chance to come for a rookie, yet that’s what happened to VJ Edgecombe Thursday night against the Golden State Warriors. Trailing 98-97 with a win probability around 50 percent, according to ESPN Analytics, Edgecombe got tied up with De’Anthony Melton — and lost the ball. Fortunately for the 76ers, the turnover didn’t amount to any Golden State points, but it left them down by one in the closing seconds. And rather than punishing him for the turnover, Philadelphia kept Edgecombe in. It paid off in a big way. With 8.2 left and his team needing a stop and a basket, with the Warriors’ win probability nearing 95 percent, he picked off a pass, the 76ers called a timeout, and then he found himself at the right place at the right time. As Tyrese Maxey’s attempt at the game-winner fell off the rim, Edgecombe tipped it in, becoming an unlikely hero and getting the win for the 76ers.
LeBron James (Lakers) — +0.56 WPA, LeBron’s back-to-back daggers seal it late (Dec. 7 vs. 76ers)
A few nights after his streak of 1,297 double-digit scoring games ended, Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James went vintage Sunday against the Philadelphia 76ers. After Joel Embiid hit a jumper to tie it with 89 seconds left — the Lakers had led since the middle of the third quarter — win probability was back at 50-50. The Lakers needed something to stop the 76ers’ run. Their nine-point lead from the end of that third quarter, the lead that had put their win probability at 87 percent, per ESPN Analytics, had evaporated. That’s when James responded with a three-pointer of his own. The shot gave the Lakers a 108-105 lead and 72 percent win probability, we should have known he wasn’t done. We should have expected he would fight even harder a game after scoring just eight points. It was a given. And accordingly, on the next possession, James hit a mid-range jumper to put the Lakers up by five and seal the victory.
Naz Reid (Timberwolves) — +0.54 WPA, Reid’s final three ends Clippers’ comeback (Dec. 6 vs. Clippers)
Much of the fourth quarter on Saturday night against the Los Angeles Clippers, Naz Reid and the Minnesota Timberwolves dominated momentum. After Reid — who finished with 19 points and five three-pointers off the bench — assisted a Donte DiVincenzo three to put the Timberwolves up 98-91, he hit a short jumper to put the Timberwolves up nine. That sequence pushed their win probability to 95 percent, per ESPN Analytics, but then the Clippers snapped back. In fact, the Clippers went on a 13-4 run to tie the game with 31 seconds, flipping win probability to even. That didn’t last long. Reid had one last answer, his final three of the night to take the 107-104 lead with 13 seconds left. And that was the shot that catapulted the Timberwolves to the win.