For every game, the numbers tell one story — but the swings tell another. Some nights, a single player’s actions can carry a team through chaos. From clutch shots to momentum-flipping runs, these performances defined the outcomes in ways that only advanced analytics like win probability capture.
To capture these narratives, I highlight the top performances in terms of win probability added (WPA) each week of the NBA season. WPA calculates how much a given player contributed to their team’s chances to win a game on a scale — for example, a player with a +0.35 WPA increased their team’s win probability by 35 percentage points, while a player with a –0.20 WPA made plays that lowered it by 20 points.
Here are this past week’s top WPA performers — the players who bent the odds in their team’s favor.
Stephen Curry (Warriors) — +0.79 WPA, Curry’s late surge flips a game the models had nearly sealed (Nov. 14 vs. Spurs)
Last Wednesday was one of those vintage Stephen Curry games. He had 49 points — and the Golden State Warriors needed every last one as they beat the San Antonio Spurs 109-108. He hit nine threes. But he did his most damage late, after Victor Wembanyama hit three straight free throws to put San Antonio up by double-digits and after ESPN Analytics suggested the game was over and gave the Spurs a 94 percent win probability with 7:25 left, scoring 10 straight Warrior points to cut the deficit to five. And then, with 6.4 seconds left, he earned a trip to the line, hit the first free throw to tie the game at 108 and then sunk the second to polish a performance to remember and a Warriors win.
Victor Wembanyama (Spurs) — +0.77 WPA, Wembanyama erases a near-certain loss with back-to-back daggers (Nov. 10 vs. Bulls)
With 2:04 left, Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs trailed 111-107 and had just a 18 percent chance of beating the Chicago Bulls last Monday night, according to ESPN Analytics. For all intents and purposes, it was over. But then as the clock wound under a minute, Wembanyama hit his third three-pointer of the night to tie the game at 114, meaning he and the Spurs had erased their 12-point deficit from early in the fourth quarter. After the three, their win probability rose to 52 percent — nearly triple what it was 64 seconds earlier. The Spurs blocked Tre Jones’ shot on the following possession, and Wembanyama took advantage, hitting another 27-footer to take the 117-114 lead. That gave them a 81 percent win probability, and the Spurs went on to turn Wembanyama’s clutch performance into a win.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. (Heat) — +0.72 WPA, Jaquez swings the game twice and forces OT with a clutch eight-footer (Nov. 10 vs. Cavaliers)
One could argue Jaime Jaquez Jr. kept the Miami Heat in this one. Immediately after Evan Mobley dunked to give the Cleveland Cavaliers the 122-121 lead –– and a 57 percent win probability, per ESPN Analytics. Jaquez went down, hit a jump shot, drew a foul, and hit the free throw to take the two-point lead. That flipped the script; it gave the Heat the edge, a 63 percent win probability. And then he hit his biggest shot: with seven seconds left, off a pass from Davion Mitchell, he hit an eight-footer to force overtime. And then he scored four points in OT to help the Heat secure the win.
James Harden (Clippers) — +0.69 WPA, Harden steadies two overtimes to salvage a near-collapse (Nov. 14 vs. Mavericks)
James Harden, unquestionably, saved the Los Angeles Clippers from a disastrous, humiliating loss on Friday against the Dallas Mavericks. They led 101-89 and had a 96 percent win probability with 10 minutes left, according to ESPN Analytics. It looked like they had a runaway win, but then they crumbled. Over the next six-and-a-half minutes, the Mavericks went on a 19-7 run to erase the deficit and force overtime. Harden nearly saved the day with two threes in that overtime period, essentially forcing a second period. And in that second OT, he had four more points to lift the Clippers to the win that snapped their six-game losing streak.
Kon Knueppel (Hornets) — +0.65 WPA, Knueppel’s twin threes in the final minute drag Charlotte into OT (Nov. 14 vs. Bucks)
The Charlotte Hornets lost to the Milwaukee Bucks in overtime on Friday night, but the reality is: they wouldn’t have even gotten to OT without Kon Knueppel’s tenacity late. The rookie from Duke recorded 32 points to give the Hornets a boost, and he turned to another level late. Toward the end of regulation, he tied the game with a three-pointer not once but twice as the clock wound down. The first came with 1:34 left, and it, in a way, reset the game as it increased Charlotte’s win probability to 48 percent up from 28 percent moments prior, per ESPN Analytics. And then a minute later, with 29 seconds left, he hit another three to tie it again — and that was the shot that forced overtime.