For every game, the numbers tell one story — but the swings tell another. Some nights, a single player’s actions can carry a team through chaos. From clutch shots to momentum-flipping runs, these performances defined the outcomes in ways that only advanced analytics like win probability capture. 

To capture these narratives, I highlight the top performances in terms of win probability added (WPA) each week of the NBA season. WPA calculates how much a given player contributed to their team’s chances to win a game on a scale — for example, a player with a +0.35 WPA increased their team’s win probability by 35 percentage points, while a player with a –0.20 WPA made plays that lowered it by 20 points.

Here are this past week’s top WPA performers — the players who bent the odds in their team’s favor.

Dennis Schroder (Kings) — +0.91 WPA, Schroder’s late takeover bends overtime in Sacramento (Dec. 21 vs. Rockets)

Sacramento Kings guard Dennis Schroder hit the game-winning three-pointer with three seconds left in overtime against the Houston Rockets on Sunday night, but even that doesn’t explain the whole story. During a 3:10 stretch in fourth quarter, he vaulted the Kings to a 17-7 run that almost instantaneously increased their win probability from 5 to as high as 30 percent, per ESPN Analytics, and cut the deficit to 103-101. That run consisted of Schroder scoring or assisting on six straight Sacramento baskets, and even though it doesn’t seem like it did much in terms of win probability, it set the tone for what would come. Moments later, the momentum it generated catapulted two of the biggest shots of the night — first a dunk from DeMar DeRozan to cut it to a one-possession game and then a game-tying three-pointer from Russell Westbrook to set the stage for overtime. But then in OT, especially the last 90 seconds, Schroder took over again. He outlasted Jabari Smith, who matched his baskets on two straight possessions and then hit free throws to give the Rockets a two-point lead and 78 percent win probability with 10 seconds left. He flipped everything with his three-pointer with 3.1 seconds left, the shot that put the Kings ahead 125-124 and proved to be that aforementioned game-winner.

Desmond Bane (Magic) — +0.78 WPA, Bane rescues Orlando after a 99 percent collapse (Dec. 20 vs. Jazz)

Desmond Bane and the Orlando Magic were dominant on Saturday against the Utah Jazz until their fourth quarter lead slipped away. Through three quarters, Bane had 21 points and the Magic followed his lead as they held onto control. Their innate command of the night equated to a 99.2 percent win probability with seven minutes left, but then the Jazz went on a monster run — 26-10 — to force overtime, ESPN Analytics said. It looked like the story of the night would be Orlando blowing the lead. With 1:21 left in OT, the Jazz led by a point and had a 54 percent win probability. They had a reasonable chance to win, a  possibility that seemed light years away in the middle of the fourth quarter. If the Magic lost, the questions would loom. And it wasn’t looking great — with four seconds left, Keyonte George gave the Jazz a 127-126 lead with a three-point play. But that’s when Bane answered the bell. On the last possession of the game, with the Magic needing a basket, as the clock wound under a second, Bane finished the job, hitting a six-footer to win the game.

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) — +0.65 WPA, Jokic steadies Denver through chaos and overtime (Dec. 15 vs. Rockets)

Jamal Murray may have hit the shot that forced overtime for the Denver Nuggets last week against the Houston Rockets, but the story of the game was Nikola Jokic. Over the last 3:47, we saw him score and assist, but in that we also saw an underrated part of his game — his three-point shooting. In a two-minute span, he hit two shots from deep, first to extend the Nuggets’ lead to four and then to retake the lead after the Rockets had tied it.  That second three increased the Nuggets’ win probability back above 70 percent after the Rockets had stolen momentum and suppressed it down to 54 percent — when they led 109-104, their win probability was 91 percent. And then on the next possession, after the Rockets tied it again, Jokic found Spencer Jones for the go-ahead three with 55 seconds left. That steadied their win probability to 74 percent, but the Rockets fought back, took the lead, and the game ended up in OT. And in the extra period, Jokic set up Jones for another three, hit two free throws, and helped guide the Nuggets to the victory..