For every game, the numbers tell one story — but the swings tell another. Some nights, a single player’s actions can carry a team through chaos. From clutch shots to momentum-flipping runs, these performances defined the outcomes in ways that only advanced analytics like win probability capture. 

To capture these narratives, I highlight the top performances in terms of win probability added (WPA) each week of the NBA season. WPA calculates how much a given player contributed to their team’s chances to win a game on a scale — for example, a player with a +0.35 WPA increased their team’s win probability by 35 percentage points, while a player with a –0.20 WPA made plays that lowered it by 20 points.

Here are this past week’s top WPA performers — the players who bent the odds in their team’s favor.

Nikola Vucevic (Bulls) — +0.63 WPA, Vucevic’s buzzer-beating 25-footer lifts Chicago (Nov. 19 vs. Trail Blazers)

Chicago Bulls center Nikola Vucevic posted 27 points and eight rebounds on Wednesday against the Portland Trail Blazers, but he made his stamp illuminate at the last second — literally. Right after the Bulls, trailing 121-119 with a 24 percent win probability, according to ESPN Analytics, called their second timeout in the matter of two seconds, Vucevic hit the shot of the game. As time expired, he went for the win — with a 25-footer off a pass from Colby White. He made it and the Bulls escaped with a win. 

Tyrese Maxey (76ers) — +0.56 WPA, Maxey’s clutch free throws drag Philly back to life (Nov. 20 vs. Bucks)

Philadelphia 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey put on a show on Thursday on the road against the Milwaukee Bucks, scoring 54 points. But even his 50 Burger doesn’t fully describe the kind of night he had. In the fourth quarter and overtime, there were moments where he took over — in that 17-minute stretch, he had 24 points and willed his team to a win despite making some mistakes on his own. Shortly after the Bucks turned him over and took the 106-104 lead with 15 seconds left in regulation, he drew a foul and tied the game with two free throws. Those free throws brought Philadelphia’s win probability from about 10 percent to 46 percent in seconds, according to ESPN Analytics, and set the stage for overtime. And perhaps not-so-ironically, he hit four free throws in the last 24 seconds of OT to seal the victory.

Landry Shamet (Knicks) — +0.72 WPA, Shamet’s back-to-back threes swing the game for New York (Nov. 19 vs. Mavericks)

Down 108-106, the New York Knicks had just a 26 percent win probability with 1:48 left on Wednesday against the Dallas Mavericks, per ESPN Analytics. But then after a good defensive possession, guard Landry Shamet hit a three to put the Knicks ahead by a point with a minute left. That doubled New York’s chances of winning, putting their win probability at 53 percent. 31 seconds later — after D’Angelo Russell split a pair of free throws to tie the game — Shamet hit another three to put the Knicks up 112-109. That did it. Following the shot, the Knicks had a 74 percent chance of winning, but more importantly, that shot catapulted them to the win.

Zion Williamson (Pelicans) — +0.47 WPA, Williamson’s late three-point burst flips momentum for New Orleans (Nov. 21 vs. Mavericks)

Cooper Flagg had just given the Dallas Mavericks a 111-110 lead over the New Orleans Pelicans — which equated to a 55 percent win probability, according to ESPN Analytics — on a three-point play when his fellow Duke Blue Devil Zion Williamson found a groove. Williamson hit a floater and a free throw to give the Pelicans a 113-111 lead, and that seemingly flipped the momentum. After Williamson’s three-point play, the Pelicans had a 63 percent win probability. The Mavericks needed a productive possession, but then Williamson stole the ball from Naji Marshall, drew another foul, and then gave New Orleans an 80 percent win probability. But it wasn’t enough and Dallas went on to survive with key buckets from Flagg and Marshall.

Stephen Curry (Warriors) — +0.46 WPA, Curry’s barrage of threes narrows it late, but the Blazers protect their lead (Nov. 21 vs. Trail Blazers)

Stephen Curry scored 38 points and hit nine threes on Friday, but the Golden State Warriors still lost to the Trail Blazers. But the problem was, each time they got within a possession, the Trail Blazers extended the lead. For example, with 2:00 left, Curry hit his sixth three-pointer of the night to inch the Warriors closer. The shot cut the Warriors’ deficit to 117-116, but ESPN Analytics still gave Portland a 65 percent win probability. And then Trail Blazers forward Deni Avdija hit a 11-footer to extend the lead back to three. That back-and-forth haunted the Warriors throughout the last few minutes.