NFL Week 16 will be remembered as the string of games that represented the 2025 season as a whole, the week that didn’t officially answer any questions. The New England Patriots, for example, beat the Baltimore Ravens behind the sensation Drake Maye — the kind of game, nationally-televised and all, that makes me look at the Patriots and think, “here we go again,” the kind of comeback that all but dissolves my questions about the quarterback. Moreover, it was the kind of game where the Patriots had a punitive chance late — a 9.5 percent win probability, down 24-13, with 12:44 left, to be exact, per ESPN Analytics — but got the win anyway.
And then in the biggest NFC North game of the year, the Green Bay Packers led the Chicago Bears 16-6 and had a 97 percent win probability on ESPN Analytics with 2:48 left. But then they kicked a field goal and recovered an onside kick. (I guess recovering one is possible, not that it changes my mind that we need to make retaining possession on kicks more possible for teams that are trailing, but that’s beyond the point). And on that possession, they put together eight plays for 53 yards and scored a touchdown to tie the game and force overtime. And in OT, they scored a walkoff touchdown to secure the comeback win.
One more thing before the Game of the Week: that Detroit Lions-Pittsburgh Steelers chaos. ESPN Analytics gave the Steelers a 92 percent win probability as Aaron Rodgers led them toward the red zone with three-and-a-half minutes left, but Chris Boswell missed a field goal to keep it a 29-24 game. That dropped Pittsburgh’s win probability to 83 percent. And it gave the Lions momentum that carried over to the next drive, where the Steelers defense committed two straight penalties that propelled the Lions from negative territory to near the red zone. And after the Lions entered the red zone, Jared Goff connected with Isaac TeSlaa to get to the 1-yard-line. That play flipped momentum; after, the Lions had a 76 percent win probability. And on the next play, Amon-Ra St. Brown scored, but it was called back because TeSlaa committed pass interference. The penalty pushed Detroit back to the 11-yard-line, too. And a few plays later, after another offensive penalty, on a fourth down play, St. Brown scored again, and again, it was nullified because he was called for pass interference — and that ended the game. 29-24, Steelers.
Without further ado, here is the Game of the Week:
Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks – ESPN Analytics Win Probability Chart
The Los Angeles Rams outgained the Seattle Seahawks by 166 yards on Sunday, they didn’t turn the ball over once while the Seahawks turned it over three times, they converted twice as many third downs and had two fourth down conversions to Seattle’s none, they still lost. And did I mention that on two separate occasions, their win probability was above 90 percent — including the moment it was 99 percent after they intercepted Sam Darnold with a 30-14 lead with 9:48 left?
That was the first occasion, and it completely swung momentum. The Seahawks were on the verge of scoring, on the six-yard line, on the cusp of the touchdown and two-point conversion they needed to cut it to one-possession. After the pick, it seemed like the Rams had sucked the air from Lumen Field. The Seahawks had gone from a prime opportunity to turn the game around to a gut-wrenching turnover in seconds. But that Rams momentum, that 99 percent win probability proved meaningless — because on that possession, the Rams had a worst-case scenario play out. Not only did they go three-and-out, but the Seahawks ended up returning the punt for a touchdown. A complete disaster, and that cut the deficit to 30-22. Win probability didn’t move, and the Rams still had a 90 percent chance of winning, but one more slip up and the lead would evaporate.
At the same time, though, on the ground, the Rams needed to respond. They were slowly losing control, seemingly one play at all time. However, their drive was a flop. Matthew Stafford threw a short pass to Puka Nacua on first down, but then it was two incompletions and a punt on fourth-and-7 with 7:09 left. The disaster was in full swing — Seattle’s win probability had risen to 17 percent (remember, it was under 1 percent just after the 10-minute mark).
It didn’t take long for the Seahawks to take advantage. They took a play to cross midfield, and then Darnold connected with tight end AJ Barner for the game-tying touchdown. That reset the game, and it lifted the Seahawks’ win probability to 41 percent. It also put pressure on the Rams — and I’d expect Stafford to be able to come through and reclaim momentum, but instead, the Rams offense ran three plays for seven yards and then punted.
That gave Seattle a 53 percent win probability, but they couldn’t take advantage. On the next possession, they stalled and went three-and-out — a wasted opportunity. The game started feeling destined for overtime; the win probability chart started swinging back-and-forth depending on who had possession. Both teams were punting the Rams even missed a field goal to keep the game tied. And sure enough, we had overtime.
To start overtime, the Rams moved gradually, but then Stafford did it — he threw a second touchdown to Nacua, this one 41 yards, to take control. They led 37-30 and had a 91 percent win probability after the score, and it meant Darnold and the Seahawks needed to score, or else it was over. And sure enough, they drove down the field methodically with a couple chunk plays mixed in and scored. But when Darnold found Jaxson Smith-Njigba in the end zone, the offense didn’t head to the sideline to watch the game-tying extra point; they stayed for the two-point try. And that conversion was successful, giving the Seahawks a walkoff win.