For every game, the numbers tell one story — but the swings tell another. Some nights, a single player’s actions can carry a team through chaos. From clutch shots to momentum-flipping runs, these performances defined the outcomes in ways that only advanced analytics like win probability capture.
To capture these narratives, I highlight the top performances in terms of win probability added (WPA) each week of the NBA season. WPA calculates how much a given player contributed to their team’s chances to win a game on a scale — for example, a player with a +0.35 WPA increased their team’s win probability by 35 percentage points, while a player with a –0.20 WPA made plays that lowered it by 20 points.
Here are this past week’s top WPA performers — the players who bent the odds in their team’s favor.
Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers) — +0.68 WPA, Mitchell’s 8-0 run flips the game in Chicago (Nov. 8 vs. Bulls)
With 1:47 left, Tre Jones made a pair of free throws to put the Chicago Bulls ahead of the Cleveland Cavaliers 122-116. ESPN Analytics gave the Bulls a 90 percent win probability — good defense and a few more made free throws would have capped off the win. But then Donovan Mitchell happened. He took over. Mitchell, who has quietly transformed the Cavaliers back into an Eastern Conference contender these past few seasons, hit a three to cut it to a one-possession game. That didn’t move momentum much in the moment, but it started a personal 8-0 run from Mitchell to give his team a 124-122 lead. That 10 percent win probability from 80 seconds earlier became 66 percent and would continue to rise with a few more clutch plays. And indeed, with a few more free throws, the Cavaliers turned Mitchell’s run into a comeback win.
Nikola Vucevic (Bulls) — +0.57 WPA, Vucevic’s late surge and game-winning three cap Bulls’ comeback (Nov. 4 vs. 76ers)
Nikola Vucevic hit the game-winning three-pointer on Tuesday, but even that doesn’t tell the full story of the print he made against the Philadelphia 76ers. With 5:15 left, the Bulls trailed the 76ers 109-102 and had just a 9 percent chance of winning, per ESPN Analytics. But then Vucevic tipped in a missed shot to cut the deficit to five. Moments later, he hit a pair of free throws to keep the 76ers within reach. As the minutes died down, he had a steal and a big defensive rebound as the Bulls slowly took the momentum and narrowed it to a one-point game with 1:19 left, setting the stage for the big shot.
Jose Alvarado (Pelicans) — +0.56 WPA, Alvarado’s clutch threes and game-winner lift Pelicans past Hornets (Nov. 4 vs. Hornets)
The New Orleans Pelicans trailed the Charlotte Hornets 112-105 with three minutes left — ESPN Analytics said they had just a 7.4 percent win probability. But then over the closing minutes, he hit two big shots; first, a three to get the Pelicans within four and give them a chance with 2:50 left. And then after the Hornets struggled mightily over the next two minutes to swing the door open for the Pelicans, he hit another big shot. He hit the shot. The shot to give the Pelicans the lead with 16 seconds left. The game-winning shot.
Jaylen Brown (Celtics) — +0.45 WPA, Brown’s late scoring run sparks Celtics’ comeback in Utah (Nov. 3 vs. Jazz)
Jaylen Brown and the Boston Celtics trailed the Utah Jazz 95-87 with 5:23 left last Thursday. They were struggling; the Jazz had extended their lead over the first 6 minutes of the fourth quarter, their chances of winning had dipped below 11 percent, according to ESPN Analytics, and they needed Brown to step up. And he did. First, he converted a three-point play — a short jumper and a foul — to cut it to five. Moments later, he made a layup, stole the ball on the following Utah possession, and then hit another shot to cut the deficit to 97-96. Suddenly, the Celtics had a 38 percent chance of winning. And then with 1:24 left, Brown hit another pull-up jumper to put Boston ahead 101-99. Their win probability had gone from 11 percent to 64 percent in minutes, in large part because of Brown. However, Brown committed an offensive foul on the Celtics’ last possession, but the Celtics got the ball with 0.6 seconds left and probably wouldn’t have gotten a high-percentage shot even if he didn’t commit the foul there.
Naji Marshall (Mavericks) — +0.41 WPA, Marshall’s early-fourth surge swings momentum and fuels Mavericks’ win (Nov. 8 vs. Wizards)
The Washington Wizards seemed to have control on Saturday night against the Dallas Mavericks — they led by eight and had a 86 percent win probability with 10:38 left, per ESPN Analytics — but then Naji Marshall happened. First, he hit a three to cut the deficit to five. And then on the Mavericks’ next possession, he drew a foul, but then he was called for a technical after the play. Bob Carrington made the technical free throw for the Wizards, and Marshall made both of his free throws to cut it to 91-87. And then later, Marshall hit another shot on one possession and a free throw with seconds left to help seal the win, but it was that early-fourth quarter run that propelled the Mavericks.