In sports, what makes a lead safe? Obviously, it depends on the margin and time remaining, but there’s another factor, one that goes beyond what we see, one that gets grouped with luck and fortune but seems to be more complex than even that, one that sits at the crossroads of how players play, how coaches coach, and how balls bounce.
Week 7 showed just how complex building and protecting leads are. Here are some of my highlights:
Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers – ESPN Analytics Win Probability Chart
Common sense would have suggested a prime-time battle between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals, between AFC North rivals, between two 40-year-old quarterbacks would have been a defensive battle and perhaps a lesson in both living and dying by the run. But in football, once teams meet between the lines, common sense tends to evaporate. And that’s how we ended up with Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco combining for 591 passing yards.
Early on, it seemed like the game would go as expected; the Steelers had scored a touchdown on the opening drive and the Bengals weren’t doing much on offense. With 10 minutes left in the first half, Chris Boswell kicked a field goal to give the Steelers the 10-0 lead, and they were on the verge of taking full control; ESPN Analytics gave them a 82 percent chance of winning.
But then Flacco and the Bengals punched back. They dominated the middle of the second quarter with a 10-play, six-minute touchdown drive that cut the Pittsburgh lead to 10-7. While that grasped some momentum, it didn’t do much, according to ESPN Analytics — Pittsburgh still had a 70 percent win probability. Nonetheless, on the very next play, the Bengals picked off Rodgers, putting them in position to steal the momentum. Sure enough, they went nearly 80 yards in 93 seconds as Flacco connected with Tee Higgins for a 29-yard touchdown to give the Bengals a 14-10 lead.
After that Higgins touchdown, the Bengals had a 54 percent chance of winning, but I assumed Rodgers would come up with the timely touchdown to steal the momentum back as he so often did in Green Bay. But a few plays later, he threw another pick, opening the door for the Bengals to extend their lead to a touchdown or more even though they had started slow. And kicker Evan McPherson ended up nailing a field goal to put the Bengals up by a touchdown, giving them a 62 percent chance of winning.
For most of the second half, they had the momentum — ESPN Analytics even gave them an 83 percent win probability with 8:49 left in the third quarter. The only exception was when Rodgers threw a 68-yard touchdown to Pat Freiermuth to give the Steelers a 31-30 lead. Although that touchdown flipped the win probability for a second, a Bengals game-winning field goal loomed. And as expected, Flacco led the Bengals down the field and McPherson hit the 36-yarder to put the Bengals in front with seconds left.
Final: Bengals win 33-31
Denver Broncos vs New York Giants – ESPN Analytics Win Probability Chart
Very un-original question, but how did the New York Giants manage to lose this game? With 5:52 left, they had all the momentum — handling their business on the road, playing just about as good as they could against a Denver Broncos team that is widely considered one of the best in the league. They led 26-8 after matching Denver’s touchdown that made it a two-possession game at the beginning of the fourth. According to ESPN Analytics, they had a 99.3 percent (yes, you read that right) win probability. They were going to pull off the upset, barring a collapse.
Then the meltdown of all meltdowns happened. It started on the fourth-and-3 play where the Broncos were in desperation mode and the Giants defense was about to get off the field again. That was the play where Giants corner back Andru Philips committed pass interference to give the Broncos a first down past midfield. And five plays later, quarterback Bo Nix rushed right for a touchdown, cutting the deficit to 26-16. Still, ESPN Analytics suggested the Giants had a 98 percent chance of winning.
On the following possession, the Giants turned the ball over, setting the Broncos up to cut the deficit even more. And what did the Broncos do with the opportunity? They cashed in. Nix tossed the ball to running back RJ Harvey, who found the end zone. Suddenly, the Giants lead shrunk to 26-23, but even despite that, even despite the momentum Denver seemingly had, they still had a 81 percent win probability.
That’s when things got even more interesting. The Giants didn’t have much of a response. Although there were only four minutes left and they could have at least drained the clock if they put together a few first downs, they didn’t. Instead, they ran the ball twice for a total of three yards, threw an incomplete pass, and then punted, meaning the Broncos had time to put a drive together without rushing. At the time, the Broncos had a 30 percent win probability, but it felt like they had a better chance than that.
They proved they did. One chunk play at a time, they moved down the field until Nix took off from the Giants’ 18 and found the end zone to take the 30-26 lead right after the two-minute warning. Suddenly, the Broncos had a 85 percent chance of winning. But then their defense folded. They forced Jaxson Dart to throw a deep incompletion on third-and-long but committed pass interference inside the 5 yard-line on the play. The officials placed the ball on the 1. And on the next play, Dart scored — and after a missed extra point, the Giants led 32-30 with 30 seconds left. The game swung, momentum swung, and the Giants were now the ones with an 89 percent chance of winning.
It felt like the Broncos had one more gasp, almost like they had to complete the comeback after scoring 30 points in the fourth quarter to that point. They did. Nix slung it, first with a 29-yard pass to Marvin Mims and then with a 23-yard pass to Cortland Sutton, to get Denver into field goal range. And two plays later, Will Lutz hit the 39-yarder as time expired to complete the comeback.
Final: Broncos win 33-32
Green Bay Packers vs Arizona Cardinals – ESPN Analytics Win Probability Chart
As the third quarter ended, the Arizona Cardinals led 20-13 and had a 57 percent chance of winning, according to ESPN Analytics, but the Green Bay Packers were on the verge of scoring. The Packers were opening the fourth on the Cardinals’ 7 yard-line with the first down marker at the 1, if they needed it. But they didn’t — on the first play of the fourth, quarterback Jordan Love found Tucker Kraft for the game-tying touchdown, and suddenly, the Packers had the momentum, a 53 percent chance of winning.
On the following possession, the Cardinals drove down to the 8 yard-line, only to stall out at the very end. Inside the 10, they had a 68 percent win probability. But the problem was, they had a negative run, an incompletion, and a sack, forcing them to kick a field goal. And even though ESPN Analytics said they still had a 62 percent chance of winning, they left four points on the board and opened the door for the Packers to take the lead late.
Their defense held stout, forcing Green Bay to go three-and-out right after that. When they got the ball back, they had a 69 percent chance of securing the win. But the offense couldn’t get anything going, so they punted back to the Packers, giving Love & Co. one more chance. Even though the Cardinals still had a 60 percent chance of winning, I almost expected to see the Packers jump out in front — as the saying goes, good teams don’t waste second chances. Sure enough, 10 plays later, Packers running back Josh Jacobs found the end zone to take the 27-23 lead. After that, the Packers had an 87 percent chance of winning, and then they secured the win as the Cardinals turned the ball over on downs on the next possession.
Final: Packers win 27-23