Some games feel over before they’re actually over — and in Week 9, a few teams learned that the hard way. It was a classic reminder that while momentum matters, it never stays still; in tight games, it can swing back and forth several times before the final buzzer. From Chicago’s near-collapse in Cincinnati to Denver’s grind-it-out finish in Houston and Jacksonville’s overtime thriller in Vegas, these games showed how fast control can disappear — and reappear — in the final minutes.

Chicago Bears vs Cincinnati Bengals – ESPN Analytics Win Probability Chart

The Chicago Bears were cruising to a road win with 2:45 left on Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals. Leading 41-27, they had just forced Joe Flacco to throw an interception from the 5 yard-line. In fact, they returned the pick for a touchdown, but further review showed that linebacker Tremaine Edmunds was down where he made the pick inside the 5. It seemed like the final two-plus minutes would be a formality. The Bears needed to simply string together a couple first downs and they’d have their fifth win of the year. ESPN Analytics said they had a 99.8 percent win probability — almost as big a guarantee we’ll ever see in the NFL.

But that’s when the problems started. On the ensuing possession, the Bears didn’t move. The first three plays, they gained seven yards, and then they punted back to the Bengals — and that allowed the Bengals to get a play off before the two-minute warning. After nearing the red zone in just three plays, Flacco threw a 23-yard touchdown to Noah Fant. With the two-point conversion, the Bengals made it a one-possession game, but the Bears’ win probability was still 98 percent.

That’s when the chaos ramped up. Evan McPherson attempted an onside kick — and the Bengals recovered it. After the recovery, the Bears’ win probability went to 81 percent and Flacco had the excitement and a glimpse of momentum. Six plays later, the Bengals completed the comeback — Flacco found Andre Iosivas for a 9-yard touchdown to give the Bengals a 42-41 lead.  Their win probability had gone from 0.2 percent with 2:46 left to 77 percent after that touchdown, with 54 seconds left.

That win probability rose to 86 percent as the Bears had two straight incompletions to start the ensuing possession. And then two plays later, it happened. Caleb Williams threw a 22-yard pass and tight end Colston Loveland did the rest, taking it 38 yards into the end zone to give the Bears the 47-42 lead and set the table for preserving the win.

Final: Bears win 47-42

Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans – ESPN Analytics Win Probability Chart

With 4:09 left in the third, the Houston Texans stopped the Denver Broncos on third down to force a punt from Denver’s own 21 yard-line. ESPN Analytics gave them a 83 percent chance of winning — they led 15-7 and had a chance to make it a two-possession game with a score. But then they proceeded to go three-and-out and punted it right back. It was a missed opportunity, and in the NFL, missed opportunities will haunt a team down the stretch.

But it didn’t take long for that to happen. On the following drive, the Broncos made them pay, driving down the field until Bo Nix and running back RJ Harvey connected for a game-tying 27-yard touchdown. With the score, the Broncos reclaimed some of the momentum — the Texans’ win probability deflated to 56 percent. 

For the next seven possessions, the Texans and Broncos punted back-and-forth. It became a game of missed opportunities, and it seemed like a contest where whichever team got its act together first would win. And then in the final minute, the Broncos put together five plays to move into field goal range, and sure enough, kicker Will Lutz split the uprights as time expired to secure the win. 

Final: Broncos win 18-15

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders – ESPN Analytics Win Probability for Chart

ESPN Analytics gave the Las Vegas Raiders a 76 percent chance of beating the Jacksonville Jaguars when they took the 23-20 lead on Brock Bowers’ second touchdown of the day with 1:52 left. But the Jaguars getting into field goal range seemed too likely for the Raiders’ chances of winning to be that high, especially considering earlier in the game, Jaguars kicker Cam Little showed his extended range as he broke the NFL record hitting a 68-yarder. 

And as such, on the ensuing possession, the Jaguars moved down the field into field goal range. Still, though, they didn’t claim the momentum until Little officially tied it. Even in the seconds before the field goal, ESPN Analytics was suggesting the Raiders had a 72 percent win probability. But after he split the uprights to send the game into overtime the script changed and the Jaguars had a 52 percent win probability.

And throughout overtime, the Jaguars had the edge. They started with the ball, took more than six minutes off the clock, and then punched it in to take the 30-23 lead. After the score, their win probability rose above 73 percent, but the Raiders had one more chance. And for the most part, they succeeded — they went 45 yards in eight plays and scored a touchdown. Problem was, when they scored, rather than kicking the game-tying extra point, they went for the two-point conversion to win 31-30. And they didn’t convert. 

Final: Jaguars win 30-29