NFL Week 12 was chaos. The Philadelphia Eagles collapsed in a divisional game against the Dallas Cowboys, surrendering a 21-0 early-second quarter lead and what was, per ESPN Analytics, a 95 percent win probability and giving up 24 straight points en route to a 24-21 road loss. Likewise, on Thursday against the Houston Texans, the Buffalo Bills’ win probability jumped from 3 percent to 67 after a 44-yard pass from Josh Allen to Joshua Palmer on fourth-and-27 with under a minute left, according to ESPN Analytics, but then the Texans came up with a pick to seal the win.

New York Giants vs Detroit Lions – ESPN Analytics Win Probability Chart

Up 27-24 on the Detroit Lions with 3:19 left, the New York Giants were on the four yard-line, about to make it a two-possession game and seal the win. ESPN Analytics said they had a 92 percent win probability — an incredibly strong chance to escape with a victory. They just needed to cash in, and they had four plays to do so. 

On the first play from the four, Tyrone Tracy Jr. picked up two yards. On second-and-goal, Jameis Winston threw an incomplete pass, and then on third down, the Giants brought veteran running back Devin Singletary in for a change of pace. That didn’t work — they actually lost four yards — and their win probability dropped to 77 percent. As if that wasn’t bad enough, on fourth down from the six yard-line, Winston threw another incompletion. Inexcusable, and although the Giants’ win probability was still 75 percent, it set up the Lions to tie or win the game.

Jared Goff and the Lions, starting on their own six, clawed their way back. It wasn’t their prettiest drive for the Lions — it featured a number of incompletions, negative plays, and a penalty — but it got the job done and ended in Jake Bates’ game-tying 59-yard field goal with 28 seconds left. Still, ESPN Analytics gave the Giants a 53 percent chance, likely because they had time for a few plays and a potential field goal attempt.

That didn’t happen, paving the way for free football and extending the Giants’ glimpse of hope. At the start of overtime, the Lions had a 55 percent win probability — and based on how the Giants had hung around the entire game, there was a chance they’d leave Detroit with a win. But it didn’t last long: on the Lions’ first play from scrimmage, Jahmyr Gibbs broke off a 69-yard touchdown to take a 34-27 lead. After the score, the Lions’ win probability was 91 percent. That vaulted the Lions to the win; on the next possession, the Giants turned it over on downs to end the game.

Final: Lions win 34-27

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs – ESPN Analytics Win Probability Chart

It’s not often that a defense holds Indianapolis Colts superstar running back Jonathan Taylor to 58 rushing yards and no touchdowns, but the Kansas City Chiefs did just that. And it’s safe to say that was the difference — because even as the Chiefs offense failed to score a touchdown in the first three quarters, even as the analytics consistently said they had a win probability over 85 percent, the Colts didn’t take full control. Late in the third, for instance, they led 17-9 and had the ball on the 7 yard-line, but they couldn’t get into the end zone and settled for the field goal.

And then just moments later, they had another chance — right after breaking into the red zone and looking like they’d score, the Chiefs fumbled. ESPN Analytics gave them a 86 percent win probability. In other words, the game was theirs. One Taylor breakaway could have sealed it.

But the Chiefs defense locked it down, forcing a three-and-out. And then on the next drive, Patrick Mahomes put the Chiefs on his back, first scrabbling for 11 yards and then running on the right side for another nine yards a few plays later to get to the two yard-line. That set up a Kareem Hunt touchdown to make it 20-17 with 8:37 left. The Chiefs had inched closer, but ESPN Analytics still gave the Colts a 70 percent chance of winning.

However, with the Chiefs bottling up Taylor and forcing Daniel Jones to get the Colts offense moving, there were problems. Jones and Taylor connected for a seven-yard pickup, but that was it — and that cost them. They punted, opening the door for the Chiefs to tie the game with a field goal or win it with a touchdown, but their win probability was still 71 percent. 

I’m not sure how it was that high. I would have bet Mahomes would have led a touchdown drive there, and even if he didn’t, the Chiefs just needed a field goal to force overtime — and I would take Mahomes over any other active quarterback heading into OT. They drove down the field, all the way from their six yard-line, got on the brink of the end zone, the three yard-line, but then they stalled and kicked the field goal to send it to OT. And in that period of free football, the Chiefs forced another three-and-out and then kicked the game-winning field goal.

Final: Chiefs win 23-20

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Arizona Cardinals  – ESPN Analytics Win Probability Chart

With 7:12 left, it seemed like the Arizona Cardinals had taken control and were well on their way to beating the Jacksonville Jaguars. They were celebrating Jacoby Brisset’s touchdown pass to Greg Dortch, which put them ahead 21-17. The offense was finally matching the intensity of the defense — especially considering they had picked off Trevor Lawrence twice in the second half. After the Dortch touchdown, they had a 72 percent win probability, according to ESPN Analytics, a dramatic shift from moments prior, when their probability was 30 percent.

That momentum faded quickly. On the ensuing kickoff, Cardinals kicker Chad Ryland sent the pigskin through the back of the end zone, giving the Jaguars the ball at the 35 yard-line. (By the way, what a great disincentive to kick the ball out of play — a team starting a drive at the 35 is enormous with the game on the line). Within a few plays, the Jaguars were in the red zone, their win probability increasing little by little, and a few plays after that, they broke into the end zone with a catch from Parker Washington. That gave them a 24-21 lead and a 70 percent win probability. They were in position to win, and “could they do it?” was the only question.

They completed the first step — stopping the Cardinals. It didn’t hurt that on top of struggling to get going, the Cardinals committed pass interference. And after the Cardinals turned it over on downs on their own 38 yard-line, Jacksonville’s win probability jumped to 91 percent, and all they needed was a productive drive resulting in points to put pressure on the Cardinals to score a touchdown. 

What happened next? Just after the two-minute warning, they got it to fourth-and-1 in the red zone, and rather than kicking the field goal, they went for it — and ended up throwing an incompletion. Even after, ESPN Analytics still gave them a 84 percent win probability. But then the Cardinals drove down the field, converted on a fourth down on their own 29 yard-line, and kicked a field goal to force overtime. And in overtime, the Jaguars kicked a field goal on the first possession and played good defense to seal the win.

Final: Jaguars win 27-24