In sports, in football, we often talk about how much momentum matters. For years, momentum has largely been seen as an immeasurable factor, but win probability is now a way to capture at least some of its meaning. 

Relatedly, win probability charts let us see exactly when games swing, sometimes in the blink of an eye. Each week this NFL season, I’ll highlight one to three games where those swings defined the outcome, showing how single plays, critical decisions, or improbable moments can tilt the field from one team to another.

Here are my Week 1 highlights:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons 

The Atlanta Falcons missed the game-tying field goal with under a minute left, but they lost the game in the drives leading up to that. They were in control with 98 seconds left. They led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-17 at home and had just forced Baker Mayfield to throw an incomplete pass short to tight end Cade Otton on second and long. ESPN Analytics gave the Buccaneers a 74.9 percent chance of closing the game out and starting the year 1-0. It seemed like a sure thing.

And then it unraveled. They allowed Mayfield to connect with Sterling Shepard on a 10-yard pass on third and nine. So instead of a last-ditch effort, the Bucs ran their two-minute offense and had first down at midfield with a-minute-and-a-half left. But still, the Falcons had a 62 percent chance of winning. They had enough time to get their act together and all would be good, right? 

Wrong. A larger disaster ensued. The Falcons did force an incomplete pass on first down, but they were called for a roughing the passer penalty, essentially gifting the Bucs 15 yards to get into the red zone. Now, the Falcons had just a 55 percent chance to win. And the next play, Mayfield threw a 25-yard touchdown pass to give the Bucs the 23-20 lead — and suddenly, the Bucs had a 88 percent chance of winning. 

Chase Mclaughlin missed the extra point that would’ve stretched the lead to four, but because the Falcons missed the field goal in the closing minute, that’s a footnote.  

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets

All the New York Jets had to do to spoil Aaron Rodgers’ return was hold on a little longer and find a little luck. Neither happened. As they held their 32-31 lead with just over a minute left, the Steelers trotted Chris Boswell out for a 60-yard field goal to take the lead. For context, Boswell had never made a 60-yarder, nor had any other kicker in Steelers franchise history, until that point. And then it happened. Boswell gave the Steelers the 34-32 lead, and their win probability jumped from 23 percent to 66 percent in an instant.

But those final moments were microcosms of the ebbs and flows of the game. For most of the second and third quarters, though, the Jets actually had the upper-hand, according to ESPN Analytics. In fact, after quarterback Justin Fields scored from the 2-yard-line to give the Jets a 26-17 lead toward the end of the third, the Jets had a 78 percent chance to win.

The opening seconds of the fourth quarter set the stage for the Steelers’ comeback. They capped a long drive with a touchdown to cut the deficit to 26–24. On the ensuing kickoff, Kenneth Gainwell fumbled, flipping momentum instantly. What had been the Jets’ game to control became Pittsburgh’s opportunity, as the Steelers’ win probability jumped to 59 percent. During the following Jets’ drive, when the Steelers forced running back Breece Hall to lose four yards, their chances of winning rose to over 71 percent. 

Ultimately, the Jets’ fate came down to execution and timing. Despite holding leads and generating opportunities, a combination of turnovers, critical penalties, and one improbable 60-yard kick swung the game decisively in Pittsburgh’s favor. By the final whistle, what had been a 78 percent chance to win for New York had evaporated, leaving a lesson in how quickly fortune can shift in the NFL — and why every play, every snap, and every decision matters when the win probability is in flux.