NFL Week 14 was one for the ages. Seven teams put up 34 or more points. Cleveland Browns rookie, Mr. Hollywood, one of the most polarizing players in the league right now Shedeur Sanders led all quarterbacks with 364 passing yards — and the Browns still lost to the Tennessee Titans, an outcome that has raised eyebrows for both betting purposes and the Browns’ interest in the first pick of the draft. The Kansas City Chiefs lost again, making their road to the playoffs look even more bleak. And Daniel Jones tore his Achilles, all but ending the hopes the Indianapolis Colts had at making a run.

But before I move to the featured games of the week, I want to highlight two games that blew my mind. First, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens, a potentially-monumental game for the AFC North race. With 2:47 left, Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely looked like he scored to take the lead, the officials originally ruled a touchdown, but upon further review, they ruled that Likely didn’t complete the process of the catch. In other words, in an instant, the Ravens gained all the momentum and then lost it.

Down South, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were set for a get-right game at home against the 2-10 New Orleans Saints. But their struggles from the past few weeks continued, and even though ESPN Analytics kept giving them 70 to 80 percent win probabilities, they couldn’t put the Saints away. It came to a head on the first drive of the second half, when Baker Mayfield threw a pick and the Saints went down to score a touchdown to take the lead. And from there, even as Tampa Bay scored to temporarily regain the lead, the Saints stole the momentum little by little, forcing turnovers and field goals in the fourth quarter to steal the win.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills – ESPN Analytics Win Probability Chart

Joe Burrow returned to the Cincinnati Bengals against the Buffalo Bills with his team essentially eliminated from the postseason — and Bengals did what they’ve done in the Burrow era; they scored a ton but allowed a ton. The Bengals had the game won in the middle of the fourth quarter; with seven minutes left, right after they scored to take a 28-18 lead, it looked over. Their win probability was at 92 percent, and it was how they scored that seemed to shift momentum toward the Bengals even more.

The touchdown came right after Bills running back James Cook fumbled on the goal line. It was quickly becoming a disaster for the Bills; their offensive miscues were turning into points for Cincinnati. Their defense seemed to be flailing, and it seemed like they were in too big a hole for Josh Allen to dig out of.  

But then we saw the grit of Allen that Buffalo fans cite as the X-factor that makes him a perfect fit for the franchise and its fan base. Putting together a four-play, 68-yard drive, the Bills moved down the field until Allen took off and ran 40 yards for the touchdown. Following the score, Buffalo, trailing by a field goal, still didn’t have a great win probability — it was 32 percent.

Then the fun started. As Burrow moved down the field, one chunk play at a time, trying to extend the Bengals’ 28-25 lead, the one thing that couldn’t happen, happened. He dropped back, aimed for his star receiver Ja’Marr Chase, threw it, but waiting in the secondary was Bills cornerback Christian Benford. Benford not only caught it, but he proceeded to return it all the way, for a touchdown to give the Bills a 32-28 lead. That gave the Bills a 78 percent win probability — and from there, they never looked back. In fact, they intercepted Burrow on the first play of the following possession and proceeded to score again to put the game out of reach.

But Cincinnati lost the game well before that. The fact is: the Bengals had the Bills on the ropes with a minute left in the first half, though. They led 21-11, their offense was approaching midfield, and they had just forced the Bills to turn the ball over on downs. ESPN Analytics gave them a 77 percent win probability. A touchdown would have gone a long way in sucking the air from Highmark Stadium and a field goal would have given them a two-touchdown lead. 

But should’a, would’a, could’a, Burrow completed an 11-yard pass to get into positive territory and then nothing happened. A sack, two incompletions, and a punt followed, and that’s how the Bengals ended the half — their win probability was still above 73 percent, though. Nonetheless, it opened the door for the comeback.

Final: Bills win 39-34