The final weeks of the season almost always bring the unexpected. The weather gets colder, the stakes get higher, and the gap between the pretenders and the contenders exposes itself. Here is some of Week 17’s win probability chaos that caught my eye:

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings – ESPN Analytics Win Probability Chart

In a divisional game, a game that the Detroit Lions needed to stay in playoff contention, a contentious battle should have been our expectation — even considering the Minnesota Vikings had been eliminated already. It should have been a “legacy game” for this iteration of the Lions, a step forward for the franchise hungry for the ultimate prize they’ve been legitimate contenders for over the past few seasons. 

But it wasn’t. Their offense sputtered. Their defense kept it close until the most important moments of the game. In fact, they had a 72 percent win probability in the opening seconds of the third quarter. But then on three straight possessions in the second half, quarterback Jared Goff threw two interceptions and fumbled — a head-scratching sequence that led me to quickly ask, “is Goff as good as he seems from time-to-time throughout the course of a season.” It felt like the perfect microcosm of the Lions’ season: full of hope but a woeful reminder that they simply didn’t have Playoff DNA this season.

Those turnovers opened the door for the Vikings to go up 13-7 most of the second half, but just as important, they deprived the Lions of capturing any momentum in the most important game of the season. Detroit hit a field goal with 4:39 left, but it didn’t move momentum — especially considering the Vikings scored two plays and 56 seconds later. That touchdown put the Lions’ struggling offense in hurry-up mode, and Goff ended up tumbling again.

And then in other notes, the New Orleans Saints came from behind to beat the Tennessee Titans in a game with draft implications. With 9:45 left, after a Tony Pollard run on first down, the Titans had a 80 percent win probability, but then they punted. The Saints scored on the next possession to take the 27-26 lead.  That flipped momentum and gave the Saints a 58 percent win probability, per ESPN Analytics. And from there, it was downhill for Tennessee; New Orleans never squandered momentum and came out with a win.

Last note: it’s hard to imagine that a second half could be better than a first half that featured 49 total points, a number that’s high for a full game, but that’s what we got in Sunday’s game between the Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers. In the second half alone, there were five game-tying or go-ahead scores. Specifically, the fourth quarter was so chaotic not even the analytics could figure it out — with 7:14 left, as they flirted with the red zone in the middle of a tie game, the Bears had a 72 percent win probability, according to ESPN Analytics, but then they kicked a field goal. On the following possession, the 49ers drove 75 yards and scored, and that turned the game on its head — it gave the 49ers a 80 percent win probability. And that was the one that closed it out and guided the 49ers to the win.