If Week 6 taught us anything, it’s that probability doesn’t equal predictability. Three different games — Chargers-Dolphins, Cowboys-Panthers, and Bears-Commanders — each followed the same rhythm: control, collapse, and chaos. At one point or another, all three teams that should have won were sitting above an 80 or even 90 percent chance on ESPN’s win probability chart. But by the final whistle, two of those “sure things” were anything but.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins – ESPN Analytics Win Probability Chart
The chaos started at the beginning of the fourth quarter. With just under 12 minutes left, the Los Angeles Chargers had a 26-13 lead and a 96 percent chance of beating the Miami Dolphins, according to ESPN Analytics. The Dolphins had just been called for offensive holding, backing them up to second-and-16 on their own 25 yard-line. On the verge of getting their offense back on the field, the Chargers owned the momentum, but then on the very next play, they got called for a low-block penalty. That gave the Dolphins 15 free yards and some momentum, though ESPN still gave the Chargers a 93 percent chance of winning.
From there, things started to unravel. A few plays later, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa guided the offense into the red zone with a pass to fullback Alec Ingold. And then shortly after, running back De’Von Achane found the end zone to cut the Chargers lead to 26-20. Nonetheless, there were eight minutes left and ESPN Analytics still set the Chargers’ win probability at 88 percent.
On their ensuing possession, the Chargers converted a first down on the first play from scrimmage but struggled from there, stalling with two incomplete passes and a 1-yard run and having to punt after 97 seconds. They ended up pinning the Dolphins inside their 20 and had an 80 percent chance of winning.
Even though there were still six minutes left, that put the Dolphins in an awkward position; they needed a touchdown, but even if they scored and even if they had a successful two-point conversion, the Chargers would most likely have a chance to win with a field goal in the closing seconds. But they did what they could to find a balance. And on the 13th play of the drive, Tagovailoa connected with veteran tight end Darren Waller for the score to take a 27-26 lead and give the Dolphins an 83 percent of winning with 46 seconds left.
But I was still anticipating a game-winning field goal. It felt like a given, like it was part of the script. We had seen the Chargers move the ball throughout the game, so the idea of Justin Herbert leading the offense down the field for a touchdown didn’t seem too far-fetched. As such, they swiftly moved into the red zone and kicker Cameron Dicker hit the 33-yarder with 5 seconds left to win it.
Final: Chargers win 29-27
Carolina Panthers vs Dallas Cowboys – ESPN Analytics Win Probability Chart
At the end of the first half, the Dallas Cowboys had a golden opportunity to take control of the game — the defense had the chance to start changing the narrative that they are below-average. Up 17-10, they had just forced Carolina Panthers running back Rico Dowdle to cough up the ball. And at that point, before that play, ESPN Analytics gave them a 71 percent chance of winning. Problem was, they couldn’t recover the fumble, so Carolina had a second chance. And a few plays later, Panthers kicker Ryan Fitzgerald hit a 55-yard field goal, cutting the deficit to 17-13 and essentially ending the half. And after the pigskin split the uprights, the Panthers had a 40 percent chance of winning.
That sparked something. Getting the ball out of halftime, the Panthers moved 80 yards in four plays for another touchdown. Suddenly, they led 20-17 and had a 53 percent chance to win, but they struggled to take control. Even though the Cowboys punted on the ensuing possession, the Panthers couldn’t capitalize — and that eventually allowed the Cowboys offense to seize the momentum. Toward the end of the third, George Pickens ran a short pass from Dak Prescott into the end zone to take the 24-20 lead and give the Cowboys a 68 percent chance of winning.
The Panthers answered right back with a 10-play drive to take a 27-24 lead early in the fourth — so with 12:20 left, they had a 59 chance to win. It started to feel like Carolina’s day: as much as the Cowboys felt like the better team, their defense couldn’t get a stop, and the Panthers kept the pressure on. That said, the Cowboys hit a field goal and tied it at 27. It was back to a coin flip, the same place we started. Both teams went three-and-out, and then Carolina won it with a 33-yarder from Fitzgerald with seconds left.
Final: Panthers win 30-27
Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders – ESPN Analytics Win Probability Chart
If, at halftime, somebody told me that the Chicago Bears were going to win Monday night against the Washington Commanders, I would have said “absolutely.” They had most of the momentum until that point — at the beginning of the second quarter, they had a 73 percent chance of winning, according to ESPN Analytics. The Commanders, despite mustering a touchdown drive mid-second quarter, had put on a terrible half, with two turnovers and a missed field goal. Even mid-third quarter, when some of that momentum slipped away, it wouldn’t have been that shocking, especially considering they led 16-10.
But then the Commanders started putting plays together toward the end of the third. With just under three minutes left in the quarter, quarterback Jayden Daniels connected with Luke McCaffrey for a 33-yard touchdown to give the Commanders the 17-16 lead. After the score, the Commanders had a 57 percent win probability.
On the following drive, the Commanders forced a field goal attempt, but Bears kicker Jake Moody missed. It was a missed opportunity, a shift in momentum toward the Commanders, particularly because they had just scored. It kept the Commanders’ lead at 17-16 and upped their chances of winning to 63 percent.
That winning probability rose to 84 percent when the Commanders scored on a pass from Daniels to tight end Zach Ertz and took the 24-16 lead. But they couldn’t stop the Bears, who responded with a 55-yard touchdown pass from Caleb Williams to D’Andre Swift. Nonetheless, the Bears failed to get the two-point conversion, so the Commanders still led and had a 65 percent chance of winning.
That’s when the Commanders started missing opportunities to seal the win. After the Bears handed them a free first down with a roughing the passer penalty on third down, they did nothing. In fact, it was one of the more confusing decisions of the year. They had fourth down on Bears’ 39, but rather than trying the field goal — from about 56 yards, a reasonable distance — they punted. A made field goal would have extended the lead to 27-22. And even if they missed it, the Bears would have had 60 yards to go. I don’t understand.
That didn’t change their win probability much, and then they had another chance to seal the game after the Bears went three-and-out on the following possession. It was midway through the fourth, and they were in the awkward predicament between needing to extend the lead and milking the clock. That was until they did what they couldn’t do: Daniels fumbled. Still, they had a 57 percent chance of winning. But nine plays and 3:07 later, Moody hit the game-winning 38-yard field goal as time expired.
Final: Bears win 25-24