NFL Week 3 reminded me of the blurred lines between good fortune, preparedness, and the importance of executing late in games. There was chaos. Momentum swung. Win probabilities did, too.
Here are some of my favorite sources of win probability chaos of the week:
Green Bay Packers vs. Cleveland Browns
Sports can be cruel sometimes. With 3:38 left, the Green Bay Packers seemed to be in business. They were up 10-0 and had just stopped the Cleveland Browns on third down, forcing a field goal attempt. Regardless of whether Andre Szmyt made the kick, they’d be in control — worst case, they’d be up 10-3 with the ball. They couldn’t quite kill the clock, but as long as they played their cards right, they’d cruise to the win. ESPN Analytics said they had a 93 percent chance of pulling it out.
Szmyt made the kick, but then the turnover monster happened. On a pass intended for Wicks, Browns safety Grant Delpit picked off Packers quarterback Jordan Love and returned it to Green Bay’s 4 yard-line. Suddenly, the Browns were on the brink of tying the game. Panic started circulating, and even with Micah Parsons on the field to anchor their stingy defense, the Packers seemed to be on the ropes. The Browns were too close for comfort. The Packers’ win probability dropped to 69 percent.
The next play, the Packers committed pass interference, which gave the Browns the ball on the 1 yard-line. That paved the way for Browns running back Quinshon Judkins to get in the end zone. Szmyt hit the extra point, tying the game at 10 and giving the Browns a 41 percent chance of winning, all the way up from the 7 percent chance they had minutes before.
We’re not done. On the ensuing drive, the Browns committed defensive pass interference to allow the Packers — who were already moving down the field — into positive territory. Their winning probability dropped to 29 percent with those free yards. But later in the drive, they got their revenge, blocking Brandon McManus’ 43 yard field goal with 27 seconds left. They had a 52 percent chance to win after that. Six plays later, Szmyt hit the game-winning field goal as time expired.
Final: Browns win 13-10
Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Los Angeles Rams were set up for a chance to win. They were on the brink of recovering from a second half that watched them lose a 26-7 lead, a second half where they had over a 94 percent chance of winning in the opening minutes before they slowly folded, according to ESPN Analytics. They were a kick away — it seemed like a sure thing. They were down 27-26 and had just made their way to the Philadelphia Eagles’ 26 yard-line. Joshua Karty just needed to hit the 44-yard field goal as time expired and they’d be 3-0 — they had a 79 percent chance of winning.
That didn’t happen. As the pigskin rose from Karty’s foot, Eagles defensive lineman Jordan Davis met it in the air. Davis then recovered it and took it 61 yards for the touchdown, sealing the win.
Final: Eagles win 33-26
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers
For the first 55 minutes of Sunday’s game between the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos, it was essentially a tale of two halves. Up until running back Omarion Hampton polished off a nine play drive with a touchdown to put the Chargers ahead 10-0 with under two minutes left in the first half, both offenses were dormant. They combined for six punts and an interception. But it was Hampton’s touchdown that burst the scoring bubble and briefly gave the Chargers a 80 percent winning probability, according to ESPN Analytics. On the ensuing drive, however, the Broncos broke through with a 52-yard touchdown pass by Bo Nix to wide receiver Cortland Sutton. Big play to get on the board, but the numbers still gave the Chargers a 64 percent chance to win.
The game seemed to flip when J.K. Dobbins broke off a 41-yard run on the first play from scrimmage of the second half to get the Broncos into the red zone. Two plays later, Dobbins scored to take the 14-10 lead and give the Broncos an edge for the first time of the game — they had a 58 percent chance to win after that score.
Fast forward about a quarter-and-a-half, to the last five minutes I alluded to. This is when it picks up. The Chargers have the ball. They’re down 20-13. ESPN Analytics are giving the Broncos a 89 percent chance to win. But then the Chargers move 41 yards in four plays to get into the red zone — Denver’s winning probability drops to 75 percent. And then on second-and-6, it happened. Justin Herbert threw a 20-yard touchdown pass to Keenan Allen, tying the game and giving the Chargers more hope and a 42 percent chance of winning.
On the ensuing drive, the Broncos went three-and-out in a terrible drive that featured a sack, a pass to Dobbins for no gain, and an incompletion. It ended with a punt from their own 22 yard-line. When the Chargers took over at their own 32, they had a 65 percent chance of winning. To get a chance at a 55-yard field goal to win the game, they needed about 30 yards. Eight plays and a third down conversion later, they got more than that, setting up Cameron Dicker’s 43-yard, game-ending field goal.
Final: Chargers win 23-20
Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers
This, too, was a tale of two halves until the last five minutes. Most of the first half, the Cardinals had the momentum. At one point in the second quarter, the Cardinals had a 63 percent chance of winning, but they couldn’t get the points up to show for it, per ESPN Analytics. That opened the door for the 49ers to get a late field goal to take a 6-3 lead into halftime. And that momentarily flipped the script, as the 49ers had a 65 percent chance to win coming out of the half.
For most of the second half, ESPN Analytics heavily favored the 49ers in terms of win probability. After they took a 13-6 lead on a touchdown pass from Mac Jones to Kyle Juszczyk, the 49ers had an 80 percent chance of winning. But then the Cardinals stormed down the field — going 65 yards in four plays spanning 2:13 — and Kyler Murray connected with tight end Trey McBride to even the score at 13. After that score, the analytics shifted toward the middle and the Cardinals had a 47 percent chance of winning.
Later in the quarter, things heated up even more. With 3:15 left, on San Francisco’s 6 yard-line, the Cardinals got to Jones for a sack, and on top of it, the 49ers were called for offensive holding. Because it happened in the end zone, it resulted in a safety. The Cardinals took the 15-13 lead and had a 80 percent winning probability at the time. But the problem was, there was too much time for the Cardinals’ offense to run the clock out on the following possession. Between the score and clock, it felt like the 49ers were set up to leave with a win.
And the drive went nowhere — they ended up punting back to the 49ers right after the two-minute warning. After the punt, though, they still had a 68 percent chance of winning. They just needed to lock in for four plays and the victory would be theirs. But they didn’t. They let the 49ers march down the field bit by bit. First it was a 11-yard pass to tight end Jake Tonges that increased the 49ers’ winning probability to 39 percent. And then three plays and a defensive penalty later, they were on the Cardinals’ 36 with a 64 percent chance to win. And then running back Christian McCaffery took a short pass from Jones 20 yards into the red zone. The 49ers’ chances of winning jumped to 83 percent. And two plays after, Eddy Pineiro nailed a 35-yard field goal as time expired to give the 49ers the win.
Final: 49ers win 16-15
This week wasn’t about dominance, it was about survival. The teams that held their nerve in the final minutes stole wins from the ones that blinked. If you want to understand the NFL, look past the scoreline — the margins are where the story lives.