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Tag: Justin Herbert

  • Post published:October 15, 2025
  • Post category:NFL Win Probability

NFL Week 6: When win probability didn’t mean predictability

If Week 6 taught us anything, it’s that probability doesn’t equal predictability. Three different games — Chargers-Dolphins, Cowboys-Panthers, and Bears-Commanders — each followed the same rhythm: control, collapse, and chaos.…

Continue ReadingNFL Week 6: When win probability didn’t mean predictability
  • Post published:September 24, 2025
  • Post category:NFL Win Probability

NFL Week 3 win probability swings: Packers collapse, Rams heartbreak, Chargers rally, 49ers survive

NFL Week 3 reminded me of the blurred lines between good fortune, preparedness, and the importance of executing late in games. There was chaos. Momentum swung. Win probabilities did, too. …

Continue ReadingNFL Week 3 win probability swings: Packers collapse, Rams heartbreak, Chargers rally, 49ers survive

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