NFL Week 11 delivered the kind of chaos that breaks win probability charts — nine games decided by one possession and five that saw double-digit swings in the fourth quarter alone. It was a week defined by missed chances, stalled drives, and momentum flipping on a single snap.
The Washington Commanders had the ball on the five yard-line, on the cusp of breaking a 13-13 tie early in the fourth on the road against the Miami Dolphins. But then after getting to the goal-line on the first two plays, they stalled, turning it over on downs. The Dolphins couldn’t take advantage, though, as they punted on their next possession, and even after the Commanders muffed the return, they gave it right back, turning it over on downs themselves. It was a disaster. Seemingly, neither team could grasp control. Both had win probabilities around 70 percent near the end of regulation, per ESPN Analytics. Even on the next possession, the Commanders missed another opportunity — a field goal — sending the game to overtime, where Miami won it.
An equally strange situation in Atlanta, where the Falcons had the momentum against the Carolina Panthers all game. That was until Bryce Young threw a touchdown to Tetairoa McMillan to give the Panthers a 27-24 lead –– the score gave Carolina a 76 percent win probability, according to ESPN Analytics. The Falcons tied it with 16 seconds left to force overtime, but then Carolina forced a punt on the opening possession of overtime and kicked a field goal to win.
Without further ado, here are some of the other games that drove win probability charts wild:.
Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings – ESPN Analytics Win Probability Chart
In the closing minute of the third quarter, the Chicago Bears led the Minnesota Vikings 16-3. They had scored 16 straight points. They had forced the Vikings to either punt or turn the ball over on five straight possessions. And they looked to be cruising to the win — ESPN Analytics gave them a 94 percent win probability.
But then to start the fourth quarter, the Vikings sacked Caleb Williams twice in three plays and forced a punt. And almost immediately, on the second play from scrimmage after a 43-yard return, running back Jordan Mason took it 16 yards to the end zone, cutting the deficit to 16-10. Although it didn’t do much according to the analytics — ESPN Analytics still gave the Bears a 78 percent win probability — it undoubtedly shifted some momentum, if for no reason other than making it a one-possession game for the first time since late in the second quarter.
On the next possession, the Bears offense stalled on the doorstep of the red zone, and to make matters worse, Cairo Santos missed the field goal. That meant rather than going up two possessions, Chicago still led 16-10. Still, ESPN Analytics gave them a steep upper-hand, but those three points had the potential to become crucial, the difference between winning and losing. And for a moment, they loomed large; the Vikings marched down the field and JJ McCarthy threw a 15-yard touchdown to Jordan Addison with 50 seconds left. The touchdown, because of the missed field goal, put the Vikings ahead 17-16 — it gave them a 75 percent win probability. But then Williams and the Bears offense drove down the field and Santos redeemed himself with the game-winning field goal as time expired.
Final: Bears win 30-27
Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns – ESPN Analytics Win Probability Chart
The third quarter of this game was offensive — and by that I mean it was anyone who likes watching scoring would have been offended. Neither offense did anything. There were four punts and both teams threw interceptions. The Cleveland Browns’ pick was on the first regular season action of Shedeur Sanders’ career, and the Baltimore Ravens’ pick was on the first play after that. Put simply, the Browns had a chance to put the game away and the Ravens had a chance to spring ahead and grasp momentum, but neither happened. Even ESPN Analytics had win probability flipping back-and-forth.
And then with a minute left in the third, Derrick Henry broke off a 59-yard run to get the Ravens in the red zone. The run vaulted their win probability to 59 percent, but then the Browns’ defense stepped up. They denied Henry twice and forced Lamar Jackson to throw an incompletion, ultimately holding the Ravens to a field goal. It felt like those four points — the difference between a field goal and touchdown — could come back to haunt them. It was like a half-missed opportunity, and it brought win probability back to 50-50 to open the fourth quarter.
That’s when the Browns lost control. On the following possession, they started with a couple positive runs, passed midfield, but then they stalled. They ended up punting back to the Ravens, getting no points on the drive. It was unacceptable, and it opened the door for Baltimore to take over. Except it looked like the possession before: although they moved down the field, they stalled just outside the red zone and settled for a field goal. Though disappointing, it tied the game, hit the reset button, and gave Baltimore momentum, a 57 percent win probability.
Sanders and the Browns’ offense stalled again after that, going three-and-out with two penalties on the next possession. That opened the door for the Ravens to complete the comeback. They did. Three plays later, on fourth-and-1, the Ravens lined up with tight end Mark Andrews under center as if they were running the tush push, but then Andrews received the snap and rather than plowing up the middle, took it to the outside and ran 38 yards for the go-ahead touchdown to give the Ravens the 23-16 lead with 2:31 left. That score proved to be the game-winner.
Final: Ravens win 23-16
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos – ESPN Analytics Win Probability Chart
With under 10 minutes left, Patrick Mahomes found Travis Kelce for the touchdown to give the Kansas City Chiefs a 19-16 lead over the Denver Broncos in a high-stakes divisional matchup. That score gave the Chiefs a sharp edge, a 72 percent win probability, according to ESPN Analytics. Good defense and a couple productive drives from Mahomes and the offense would have done the job.
The defense did its job, but the offense couldn’t hold up its end of the bargain. Immediately after the Kelce touchdown, the Broncos offense stalled, going three-and-out with multiple penalties, opening the door for the Chiefs to make it a two-possession game. At that point, the model gave the Chiefs a 71 percent win probability. But on the first play from scrimmage, tight end Noah Gray moved early, and that five-yard penalty set the tone for the drive. Four plays after, the Chiefs punted back with a 63 percent win probability.
Marvin Mims Jr. returned the punt to midfield, giving the Broncos great field position and a chance to take the lead. The drive started productive — with plays of eight yards, then seven yards, then four yards — but then it, in a way, stalled with two incompletions. Will Lutz ended up kicking a 54-yard, game-tying field goal with 4:10 on the clock, and Kansas City’s win probability dropped to 56 percent.
The next drive was a flop for the Chiefs. Mahomes threw two incompletions, the Broncos sacked him, and then Kansas City punted. It flipped the momentum; as Denver got the ball back, their win probability was 55 percent. They just needed a field goal, and after two third-down conversions, including a 20-yard pass from Bo Nix to Cortland Sutton on third-and-15 from their own 21, they got it; as time expired, Lutz hit a 35-yarder to win it.
Final: Broncos win 22-19