NFL Week 5 had eight games come within one possession and six with 20 or more fourth quarter points. From beginning to end, we saw it all; critical turnovers, outright bad decisions that cost teams chances to win, overtime, a comeback on another continent, an up-and-coming team beating this decade’s gold standard of football on the national stage, two championship contenders exchanging blows, and more.
One of those chaotic fourth quarters came between the Miami Dolphins and Carolina Panthers. The teams exchanged touchdowns and each had a pretty good chance of closing it out. In fact, the Dolphins had a 76 percent chance of winning with under five minutes left, but they couldn’t stop the Panthers. On the drive after they took the 24-20 lead, the Panthers moved 83 yards in under three minutes. Unacceptable and it led the Panthers to clinch the 27-24 lead and eventually the victory.
When I said “outright bad decisions,” I was mainly talking about one critical, inexcusable, infuriating play, the play that would have warranted discipline at even the pee-wee level, the one I expect high school and college coaches to point to as a lesson on what not to do, the one in the Tennessee Titans-Arizona Cardinals game, the one where Cardinals running back Emmanuel Demercado thought he had broken away from the Titans defense, seemed to be on the verge of extending his team’s 21-6 lead, but then slowed down and flipped the ball away, assuming he was in the end zone. And though the officials initially ruled it a touchdown, the review showed that he released the ball before he crossed the goal line, resulting in a Titans touchback. Absolutely disastrous. Momentum shifted completely — ESPN Analytics gave the Cardinals a 97 percent chance of winning before the play, and even though it was still favoring them, there was a palpable feeling that the Titans had life — and the momentum. And on the following possession, the Titans scored, beginning a wave of 16 straight points, including a field goal to end the game and seal their first win of the year.
It was the opposite type of momentum in the Denver Broncos-Philadelphia Eagles game. The Eagles dominated the game until the fourth quarter. They were leading 17-3 after the third, and at one point in that third quarter, ESPN Analytics gave them a 95 percent chance of winning, but then the wheels came off. Starting at the end of the third, the Broncos put together three productive drives — one 10 plays for 64 yards, another six for 72, and the last 11 for 50 — to take the 21-17 lead and get in position to win.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Seattle Seahawks – ESPN Analytics Win Probability Chart
This one was almost a classic lesson on the importance of putting teams away early. On their first three possessions, the Seattle Seahawks missed a field goal, punted, and fumbled — almost as bad a start as possible. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers could have led 21-0, 17-0, or at least 14-0. They could have been on the verge of blowing the game wide open. But no, their lead was a mere 6-0. Because they, themselves, couldn’t finish drives with touchdowns, they were in a fight, a battle, a contest of who could right the ship first. And although ESPN Analytics gave them a 73 percent chance at that point, the fact that they hadn’t scored a touchdown felt like a sign that it wasn’t their day.
They broke through just before the two-minute warning, taking a 13-0 lead, claiming the momentum. ESPN Analytics was giving them a 83 percent chance of winning at that point. Their defense simply needed to get another stop and they would have the momentum going into halftime. But the Seahawks offense had other ideas, awaking for a 54-yard drive to get a touchdown with seconds left in the half to get on the board. Nonetheless, the Bucs still had a 68 percent chance to win.
As the second half started, the fireworks did, too. The Bucs and Seahawks traded touchdowns for the first five and seven of the first eight drives of the half. Even so, up until the middle of the fourth quarter, ESPN Analytics suggested the Bucs had the upper-hand, despite how they had struggled in the first half and despite how the Seahawks had been hanging around in the second.
That changed when the Seahawks moved from their own 3 yard-line to the Bucs’ 29 in a span of four plays — anchored by a roughing the passer penalty. Their win probability jumped from 49 percent to 68 percent, and they were suddenly on the doorstep of the red zone in a 28-28 game with just over five minutes left. A few plays later, on fourth-and-2 on the 21 yard-line, quarterback Sam Darnold did it, throwing a touchdown to Tory Horton for the lead. Up 35-28, the Seahawks had an 88 percent chance of winning with 3:38 left.
Then Mayfield Magic unfolded. Mayfield led a 5-play, 70-yard drive in two minutes, connecting with Sterling Shepard for the game-tying touchdown. But given the high-scoring second half I was watching, I expected the Seahawks to drive, kill the clock, and kick a field goal. ESPN must have, too; the Seahawks still had a 72 percent chance of winning. However, on the second play of the drive, Darnold threw a pick, immediately flipping the game, giving the Bucs an 85 percent chance of winning. Sure enough, five plays later, Bucs kicker Chase McLaughlin knocked through the 39-yard field goal as time expired to seal the 38-35 win.
Final: Buccaneers win 38-35
Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars – ESPN Analytics Win Probability Chart
This game epitomized how one play can change everything. The Kansas City Chiefs were on the brink of breaking the tie, of going up 21-14 with about two minutes left in the third quarter, of potentially righting the ship with a big fourth quarter. On the 3 yard-line, seemingly about to score, they had a 73 percent chance to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars, according to ESPN Analytics. But then the worst case scenario unfolded. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ pass to Juju Smith-Schuster ended up in the hands of linebacker Devin Lloyd, who returned it 99 yards for a touchdown. That, in almost every way, flipped the momentum, giving the Jaguars the 21-14 lead and a 73 percent chance of winning.
The Chiefs’ following possession was plagued by penalties — three flags cost them a total of 25 yards — and they found themselves with a third-and-24 situation. It was an uncharacteristic drive for the Chiefs, who typically play with discipline, with attention to the “little things.” Similarly uncharacteristic, the Chiefs had just a 22 percent chance of winning.
But then things seemed to change for a few moments. The Chiefs looked more like the Chiefs throughout the heart of the fourth quarter, when they scored two touchdowns and allowed just a field goal. After the second touchdown, a Kareem Hunt rush capping an eight-minute drive, they led 28-24 with an 85 percent chance to win.
They still couldn’t stop the Jaguars, however. They almost did — multiple times. The Jags were down to third-and-7, had just lost three yards, and were in desperation mode when quarterback Trevor Lawrence connected with Brian Thomas Jr. on a 33-yard pass to near the red zone. After the catch, the Jags’ winning probability jumped to 39 percent. A few plays later, after they took their last timeout, the Jags had a scare: Lawrence was picked off. But fortunately for Jacksonville, the Chiefs committed pass interference on the play. ESPN Analytics gave the Jags an 80 percent chance of winning after the pick, and sure enough, the next play, Lawrence scored his second rushing touchdown of the night to take the 31-28 lead with 23 seconds left.
Final: Jaguars win 31-28
Minnesota Vikings vs Cleveland Browns – ESPN Analytics Win Probability Chart
This was a wild game to wake up to Sunday morning. The Cleveland Browns and Minnesota Vikings didn’t sell the London audience short. At times, it felt like neither team could take over the game. And even though the Vikings held the momentum most of the first three quarters — they even had a 71 percent chance of winning, according to ESPN Analytics, early in the second half—it was an even game win probability-wise at halftime. After that initial wave of momentum from the Vikings out of the half, the Browns started to chip away. Early in the third, they strung together a 13-play, 69-yard drive ending in a touchdown pass from Dillon Gabriel to David Njoku to take the lead again.
For a while, it looked like that Njoku touchdown could be the difference. When he scored, ESPN Analytics predicted that the Browns had taken the momentum, giving them a 54 percent chance of winning. But over the course of the second half, neither team could get anything going on offense. It was a contest of who could get going first. After the touchdown, Cleveland punted on four straight possessions, but the Vikings were even worse — they punted twice, fumbled and missed a field goal. Up 17-14, the Browns had the upper-hand, simply because it didn’t seem like anyone would score. After the Vikings punted on a drive where they actually lost two yards with 3:38 left, the Browns actually had a 82 percent chance of winning.
But then they did what the Browns have done for years. They went three-and-out, actually losing a yard, and punted back to the Vikings. And at this point, it seemed like Minnesota was on the brink of tying it or taking the lead, but ESPN Analytics still had Cleveland with a 73 percent chance of winning. I didn’t know what to expect.
The Vikings marched down the field with one purpose: scoring a touchdown. Each play pushed the momentum their way a little more. It was a series of short passes and runs with back-to-back Carson Wentz passes for 21 and 14 yards. As they moved into the red zone with one of those short passes on third down, their win probability jumped to 52 percent. One more short pass and they were on the 12 yard-line with a 66 percent chance of winning. And then with 25 seconds left, Wentz found Jordan Addison for the go-ahead touchdown, essentially sealing the victory.
Final: Vikings win 21-17