NFL Week 2 was a masterclass in chaos. Across the league, teams swung between despair and triumph in the span of a few snaps. Win probabilities spiked and collapsed like a roller coaster, and momentum — the thing we often debate as immeasurable — was on full display.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Houston Texans
Mayfield Magic can be intoxicating. After Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield threw an incomplete pass to Emeka Egbuka on third down, the Bucs needed a miracle. Fourth and long was coming up and they trailed the Houston Texans 19-14 with 1:32 left. The Texans had taken the lead on a Nick Chubb touchdown seconds before. ESPN Analytics gave the Texans over a 90 percent chance to win. And then it happened. And then Mayfield pulled off one of those plays that define who he has become — poised in the midst of plays and game moments that seem chaotic. He scrambled 15 yards into Texans territory.
That play gave the Bucs a fighter’s chance — a 25 percent chance to win. But I could feel the momentum shift. All of the sudden, the Bucs were playing fast, in their no-huddle offense, and seemed to be in the driver’s seat. That 25 percent felt more like 45 percent in real time. And then Mayfield completed a short pass to tight end Cade Otton for 8 yards to cross midfield — giving the Bucs a 30 percent chance of winning. 17 seconds and a couple plays later, Mayfield passed to running back Bucky Irving to get the Bucs into the red zone. The Bucs fully gained the momentum at that point, with the ball on the 23 yard-line and 42 seconds left.
Eight game seconds later, Mayfield connects with Mike Evans to get the ball to the 7-yard-line. The Bucs had a 66 percent chance of winning at that point. Another pass to Otton on 1st-and-goal to the 2-yard-line. Tampa Bay’s winning probability jumps slightly to 68 percent. And then running back Rasheed White runs it in to put the Bucs up 20-19. Mayfield threw an incomplete pass on the two-point conversion attempt, but it didn’t matter as the Texans had 6 seconds left.
Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants
The Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants punished the NFL scheduling team that decided not to put it on primetime. 44 combined points between the fourth quarter and overtime. Five fourth quarter lead changes that ultimately led to overtime. And one of the messier win probability charts we’ll ever see — especially late.
Let’s start at the end of the fourth quarter — when the action really picked up. On fourth down with 2:44 left, trailing 27-23, Giants quarterback Russell Wilson delivered a dart to Wan’Dale Robinson to take a 30-27 lead. And that gave the Giants a 69 percent chance of winning.
On the ensuing drive, the Giants defense had the Cowboys on the ropes. It was fourth and 3 on the Cowboys’ own 36, just before the two minute warning. One more play would have iced the game. They had a 76 percent chance of winning. But they allowed Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott to connect with Jalen Tolbert for 11 yards and a first down. Their winning probability dropped to 63 percent. Seven plays later, Prescott connects with George Pickens on a 6-yard touchdown pass. That put the Cowboys up 34-30 and gave them a 96 percent chance of winning.
Yes, they ended up winning, but not before more shenanigans. They simply couldn’t do it the easy way. On the ensuing drive, the Giants ran three plays, the third a 48-yard touchdown pass from Wilson to Malik Nabers. Now, the Giants had the extreme edge — the 37-34 lead with 25 seconds left and a 92 percent chance to win. But unfortunately for the Giants, the Cowboys have one of the best kickers in history, Brandon Aubrey, who sent it to overtime with a 64-yard field goal as time expired.
When overtime came, offenses that combined for 41 points in the fourth quarter went dormant. Three straight punts to start. I was waiting for someone to take control. It felt like the first team to force a mistake would win — and a tie didn’t feel possible. We had gone too far for this rivalry game to be settled without a winner. And then it happened. Wilson — who had been playing great, with 450 yards and three touchdowns — threw a pick. Suddenly, the Cowboys had a 58 percent chance of winning and a chance to run a few plays and trot Aubrey out for the game winner. They did, ending the marathon of a rivalry game.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Seattle Seahawks
At the beginning of the fourth quarter of this game, I saw one of the most bizarre things. We all did. Pittsburgh’s rookie kick returner Kaleb Johnson fumbled a kickoff into the end zone, didn’t realize it was a live ball, and then George Holani recovered it for a Steelers touchdown. The play was impressive and baffling in and of itself, but perhaps more mind-blowing is how the score registers as a drive of no plays or yards that took no time off the clock.
In an instant, almost literally, the Seahawks had turned a 14-14 tie to a 24-14 lead. The 10 quick points epitomized the importance of momentum — per ESPN Analytics, it gave the Seahawks nearly an 88 percent chance of winning, a dramatic shift from how the Steelers had a 79 percent chance of winning earlier in the half, back when they led 14-7.
And as a viewer, I could almost feel the air get sucked from the Steelers. I wondered, “how do they recover from that?” It was catastrophic. It took a second to comprehend the rule, that the Seahawks had just scored a touchdown immediately after kicking a field goal. I imagine it was a similar feeling on the Steelers sideline. They probably felt OK after they held the Seahawks to a field goal — it was a three-point game and they were about to get the ball back, with Aaron Rodgers, mind you. But that gaffe took that life. It was a routine return, a play that often feels like a formality, and the fact that they couldn’t convert something so simple shook them.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals
With five minutes left, the Jacksonville Jaguars led 27-24 and had just picked off Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Jake Browning in plus-territory. After a return to the 34 yard line, the Jaguars had an 87 percent chance of winning the game. They had the Bengals on the ropes — playing with a backup quarterback with the game on the line, not to mention that interception itself capped off a drive where Cincinnati’s offense ran three plays for 11 yards in 51 seconds. The Jags could’ve sealed the deal with a touchdown or effective clock management and a field goal.
But they didn’t. The first play after the pick, Jags running back Travis Etienne Jr. lost four yards. On second and 14, quarterback Trevor Lawrence threw an incomplete pass to Dyami Brown. Third and long, Latavius Allen ran up the middle for nine yards. Fourth down, Lawrence threw an incomplete pass to Brian Thomas. Turnover on downs. Bengals ball with about 3:45 left —ample time for the offense to rally around Browning. But even in that moment, even though they couldn’t seal it, the Jaguars had a 74 percent chance of winning.
Fast forward a couple incomplete passes. It’s third and 10 on Cincinnati’s own 8-yard-line, and the Jags now have an 80 percent chance to win. Two more stops, the game is over, and a passing play is virtually guaranteed. Browning connects with Drew Sample for seven yards, so now, it’s fourth and short. It’s crunch time now, and the Jags’ chances to close it out stand at 83 percent. All they need is to make one play and it’s over.
Guess what? Browning completes a pass to Chase Brown near the sideline for 13 yards and the first down. Back to a 68 percent chance to win for the Jags. Moments later, the Bengals have another fourth down — on their own 33-yard-line with 1:54 left. The math said the Jaguars had an 80 percent chance of winning, but then rookie defensive back Travis Hunter committed pass interference, gifting the Bengals 25 yards, a new set of downs, and a newfound sense of momentum. Cincinnati runs a play for five yards and their win probability jumps to 43 percent.
The rest is history. Over the next three plays, the Bengals moved 33 yards in 22 seconds, down to the 4-yard-line. Suddenly, after multiple fourth down conversions, after moments where the offense looked bleak, they had a 76 percent chance of winning. And then it happened. On their fourth try — on third down, after offsetting penalties on first down — Browning ran up the middle for the score with 16 seconds left. With the extra point, the Bengals went up 31-27, essentially icing the game.
Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts had the odds stacked against them when running back Jonathan Taylor lost two yards on third-and-7 with 17 seconds left — they trailed the Denver Broncos 28-26 and ESPN Analytics gave them a 27 percent chance of winning. And then they trotted Spencer Shrader, the second year kicker out of Notre Dame, to kick the 60-yard field goal, destined to be his new career-long, as time expired. That was until the ball was snapped and the Broncos were called for a leverage penalty.
Schrader missed the kick, but courtesy of the penalty, he got a retry from 15 yards closer — from 45. Sure enough, he put it through and sent the Broncos home with a 29-28 loss. Gut-wrenching for the Broncos, who had led since the 8:24 left in the first quarter, who ESPN Analytics gave the upper-hand in terms of win probability the majority of the game. More than that, it’s unacceptable. They had the game won and then committed a penalty. That would be unacceptable in a high school game, let alone in the pros.
It was a week defined by swings, stumbles, and second chances — a reminder that in the NFL, no lead is safe, no moment too small, and no game ever truly finished until the clock hits zero. Week 2 gave us chaos in its purest form. Week 3 promises more.