In sports, what makes a lead safe? Obviously, it depends on the margin and time remaining, but there's another factor, one that goes beyond what we see, one that gets…
If Week 6 taught us anything, it’s that probability doesn’t equal predictability. Three different games — Chargers-Dolphins, Cowboys-Panthers, and Bears-Commanders — each followed the same rhythm: control, collapse, and chaos.…
NFL Week 5 had eight games come within one possession and six with 20 or more fourth quarter points. From beginning to end, we saw it all; critical turnovers, outright…
NFL Week 4 was unbelievable. Late chaos. Lead changes. Fanbases getting their hopes up in the second half just to get disappointed in the end. Win probabilities flipping in seconds.…
NFL Week 3 reminded me of the blurred lines between good fortune, preparedness, and the importance of executing late in games. There was chaos. Momentum swung. Win probabilities did, too. …
NFL Week 2 was a masterclass in chaos. Across the league, teams swung between despair and triumph in the span of a few snaps. Win probabilities spiked and collapsed like…
In sports, in football, we often talk about how much momentum matters. For years, momentum has largely been seen as an immeasurable factor, but win probability is now a way…
Since the NFL Draft, I have been thinking about Shedeur Sanders and the nepotism debate: did he get drafted because of his name — because his father is the legendary…
Micah Parsons requesting a trade from the Dallas Cowboys feels different than the typical player pressuring team approach — because it is. It involves Cowboys general manager Jerry Jones, the…
