Win probability charts were off the wall this week, but not in the way you think.

I’ll put it simply: NFL Week 8 was full of blowouts. Literally and so much so that I have really struggled to find how to handle this edition of my column. How does one approach a piece that exists to discuss close games following a week like Week 8, where seven of the games were decided by 20 or more points and where only two games came within 10 points? I don’t know, but that’s sports; some weeks are chaos with back-and-forth drama seemingly everywhere we look, and others gift us with other drama, drama that is literally — in terms of win probability — and figuratively off-the-charts.

To name a few storylines: Tua Tagovailoa threw four touchdowns as the Miami Dolphins beat the Atlanta Falcons 34-10 on the road, Drake Maye threw three touchdowns to lead the New England Patriots to a win over the Cleveland Browns even though Myles Garrett sacked him five times, and James Cook ran for 216 yards and two touchdowns as the Buffalo Bills beat the Carolina Panthers 40-9 in a get-right game.

But the competitive games were few and far between. Here are the two games that did bring us some of the drama we crave:

Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers – ESPN Analytics Win Probability Chart

Aaron Rodgers facing his former team, the franchise he started with, the franchise he won a Super Bowl with, the franchise he won four MVP awards with, the franchise that irked him by drafting a quarterback as he was still playing at a high level, was always going to be a spectacle. And it lived up to expectations — I might even argue it exceeded them. 

It wasn’t necessarily the back-and-forth shootout — where the Packers score, then the Steelers score, and so on — that some of the other games I’ve written about have been. Rather, momentum happened in waves.

Toward the end of the first quarter, for instance, the Packers had the momentum. They had already scored a touchdown, they had held the Steelers to a field goal and a punt, and they were driving. ESPN Analytics had their win probability set at 72 percent. But then the offense stalled, and they trotted Brandon McManus out for a field goal to make it 10-3. He missed the 57-yarder, though.

That’s when the game seemed to change. On the next two possessions, the Steelers settled for field goals, and after the first, I thought “the Packers have to take advantage of this,” but they didn’t. Instead, they punted twice and mcmanus missed his second field goal to end the half. That put the Steelers’ win probability at 75 percent.

It seemed like the Steelers could come out of the half and take control — they were receiving the kickoff and a touchdown would have made it a two-possession game. But they punted after 59 seconds. Another missed opportunity for these offenses. The difference was that the Packers made them pay, driving 90 yards in nine plays for a touchdown on the ensuing possession. Pittsburgh’s win probability plummeted to 56 percent.

Although the Steelers still led, that’s when the Packers awoke. They scored touchdowns on their next two possessions to take a commanding 29-19 lead — and after the second touchdown, ESPN Analytics gave them a 92 percent chance of winning. Rodgers needed to respond quickly — there were under 11 minutes and his defense had shown no signs of hope for stopping the Packers’ offense. But a 15-yard penalty derailed the drive and any chance the Steelers had at coming back, and for the rest of the game, momentum belonged to the Packers.

New York Jets vs Cincinnati Bengals – ESPN Analytics Win Probability Chart

With 10:41 left, Cincinnati Bengals running back Chase Brown scored to seemingly put the game away. It stretched the Bengal lead over the winless, first draft pick-bound New York Jets to 38-24. It increased the Bengals’ win probability to 96 percent. 

But then on the following possession, Justin Fields and the Jets awoke. They were down to fourth-and-1 at midfield, needing the smallest of plays to keep their glimpse of hope alive and needing a chunk play to turn that hope into some momentum. And on that fourth down play, with just a 6 percent win probability, Fields converted on a 24-yard catch-and-run from tight end Jeremy Ruckert to near the red zone. And on the next play, Breece Hall scored a 27-yard touchdown to cut the deficit to 38-32. 

ESPN Analytics said the Bengals still had a 88 percent chance of winning, but suddenly, the Bengals couldn’t get anything going offensively. On the following possession, they actually lost six yards and didn’t take time off the clock, punting back to the Jets after 44 seconds. It was a disaster. Other than a turnover, that was the worst-case scenario. But they still had a 74 percent chance of winning as they punted back.

The Jets offense started at midfield but quickly moved down the field. First, Fields completes a 23-yard pass to Arian Smith and the Jets’ win probability rises to 33 percent. A few plays later, Hall gets them in the red zone on a short run, and their chance to win goes to 43 percent. Then it goes to 49 percent as they convert a short pass from Fields to tight end Mason Taylor. And then it happened. And then the Jets took the lead on a pass from Hall — yes, Hall, the running back — to Taylor. ESPN Analytics gave them a 58 percent chance of winning after that, but on the following possession, the Bengals turned it over on downs with seconds left to effectively end the game.