NFL Week 15 was wild. For the second straight week, the Buffalo Bills mounted a dramatic comeback, overcoming a 21-0 deficit with four second half touchdowns to get the 35-31 road win over the New England Patriots. At one point in the second quarter, right after the Patriots took the three-touchdown lead, Buffalo’s win probability was 6.2 percent, per ESPN Analytics. But I guess when you have Josh Allen, no deficit is too steep.

In other notes, the New Orleans Saints scored 13 straight points after the two-minute mark of the third quarter, including 10 in the last 2:29 of the game, to beat the Carolina Panthers 20-17. In the middle of the fourth quarter, as the Panthers led 17-10, ESPN Analytics gave the Saints just a 13 percent win probability. And in Seattle, the Seattle Seahawks punched back after Indianapolis Colts kicker Blake Grupe put a 60-yard field goal through the uprights to take a 16-15 lead with 47 seconds left. After the field goal, ESPN Analytics predicted the Colts had a 85 percent win probability, but it proved meaningless. On the following possession, the Seahawks drove into field goal range and Jason Myers drilled the 56-yarder — his sixth of the game — to take the 18-16 lead and  ultimately guide the Colts to the win.

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ESPN Analytics Win Probability Chart

This one was practically over 90 seconds into the fourth quarter. Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield had just thrown a touchdown to Chris Godwin to go up two scores on the 5-8 Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons themselves had fumbled at the end of the third quarter to open the door for that touchdown. Simply put, it looked like the Buccaneers were on the verge of a victory. ESPN Analytics gave them a 94 percent win probability — it doesn’t get much higher than that.

And then stuff — the very things that the Buccaneers didn’t need to happen, the events that would have been the exact ingredients one would include in a recipe for a Falcons comeback — happened. The Falcons navigated passed midfield, then they exploded. From the 44-yard-line, Kirk Cousins found tight end Kyle Pitts, who, by the way, had a monster game with 11 receptions, 166 yards, and three touchdowns, for 18 yards to near the red zone. And then on the next play, Cousins found David Sills V for 20 more yards, and they were in business, on the six yard-line. One more play, and Bijan Robinson was in the end zone with the score.  

They went for two — the analytics play — but didn’t get it, so they trailed 28-20 with 9:37 left.  Their win probability sat at 12 percent. In other words, Mayfield and the Buccaneers had a chance to close it out, a good one, for that matter. They simply couldn’t turn it over, and if they put points up, they would have been on their way to the win. 

But then as the Bucs moved into Falcons territory a few plays into the ensuing drive, Mayfield dropped back and aimed for Mike Evans, but it landed in the arms of Atlanta cornerback Dee Alford. Although the Bucs still had a 86 percent win probability after the play, it was just another missed opportunity to extend the lead for the Bucs, another brick to prop the door open for the Falcons.

Sure enough, Atlanta took advantage on the next possession, but not before the Bucs had a chance to take control. On second-and-10 from the Bucs’ 25 yard-line, Darnell Mooney caught a pass from Cousins, but then he fumbled. That was it — that was the Bucs’ chance to close it out. But they didn’t, the Falcons retained possession, and four plays later, Pitts scored. Again, though, they couldn’t convert the two-point conversion, so the Bucs led 28-26 with 3:34 left. And the Falcons’ win probability rose to 34 percent.

Tampa Bay could have escaped with a decent final possession, one that either ran out the clock or drained most of it while extending the lead at least beyond a field goal. But they didn’t. They stalled again, they went eight yards in six plays and they punted. An unacceptable, inexcusable possession. Still, they had a 67 percent win probability.

But it didn’t matter what the model said. Tampa Bay had missed too many opportunities to ice the game and Atlanta was going to take advantage. And as such, the Falcons drove down the field in their two-minute offense and Zane Gonzalez kicked through a 43-yard field goal as time expired to give them a 29-28 road win.

Final: Falcons win 29-28