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Mariners’ cold stretch doesn’t change their October outlook

The Seattle Mariners have cooled off over the past week, losing two straight series to the Baltimore Orioles and the New York Mets after winning 10 of 11 games following their acquisitions of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez at the trade deadline. The offense has struggled to capitalize on opportunities; Julio Rodriguez, for instance, grounded into an inning-ending double play with the bases loaded in the third inning on Sunday against the Mets. It’s been inconsistent, too — the Mariners scored three runs on Thursday but bounced back with 11 in Friday’s series-opening win, only to combine for six runs over the weekend.

Not to mention, in the 7-3 loss on Sunday, George Kirby, one of the more dependable starters in the league, allowed seven runs on 12 hits in less than five innings. 

All that to say it was a mess. But it was one weekend and two series. Let’s not panic, because those things happen. The Mariners just happened to go from red-hot to the entire team struggling at once. They’re still the team that looked dangerous a couple weeks ago after adding Suarez and Naylor. They’re still in arm’s distance of the Houston Astros in the AL West.

It was simply uncharacteristic. The reality is that the Mariners have all the pieces to make a run. They have a lineup that’s as good as any in baseball, one that’s anchored by Cal Raleigh, the major league home run leader, Rodriguez, a .300 hitter with 36 stolen bases on the season, and now Naylor and Suarez, who have recorded 11 stolen bases with 24 RBIs and eight home runs with a .272/.348/.507 slash line, respectively, since joining the team. They’re deep, they’re versatile, and they’re multidimensional.

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But what stands out to me most about the Mariners is their starting rotation. They have three starters not just capable of eating innings, but capable of controlling games. Luis Castillo, with a 2.95 ERA over 185 innings, has proven to be a true ace, missing bats with more than a strikeout per inning while carrying himself with the poise of a postseason No. 1. George Kirby brings a different weapon: command. His 3.10 ERA across 185 innings is paired with one of the lowest walk rates in baseball, making him the type of pitcher who can neutralize powerful lineups simply by refusing to give away free bases. And then there’s Logan Gilbert, who quietly might be the most underrated of the three, logging 178 innings with a 3.35 ERA and giving Seattle a third dependable arm that most contenders would kill for.

That’s a recipe for postseason success. When fall comes, the game slows down and rotations shorten; being able to roll out three pitchers who consistently deliver quality starts gives the Mariners the kind of backbone that can carry them through a five- or seven-game series. Add in the bullpen depth to protect leads, and Seattle suddenly looks like a team built for October.

Frankly, I don’t care if the Mariners aren’t atop their divisions or even if they win it — they’re too good not to get at least a Wild Card spot. They feel like one of the most complete teams in an American League that seems to be up for grabs. I’d place them on the same tier in the AL as the Detroit Tigers, especially considering the New York Yankees don’t seem to be the contenders they once were.

The reality is: this is baseball and almost anything can happen. Injuries happen. Seasons come and go and some teams don’t live up to their potential. But in the same way, cold streaks happen. Last season, the Yankees had a 10-23 stretch in the middle of summer, and they still made the World Series. So I don’t think this cold stretch says much about what the Mariners are or what they could be. They’re too good and too complete a team for that. Rather, it’s simply a bump-in-the-road, nothing more and nothing less.